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Nobody expects the Spanish acquisition to succeed

This article is more than 17 years old
in Brussels

The conquistadors are back. Only this time they have not set their sights on the open economy of Britain but the relatively closed one of France and, what's more, in the middle of a presidential election campaign that sees Sarko outdo Ségo, the two remaining candidates in the second round on May 6, in raising the protectionist flag.

Sacyr, the Spanish construction group led by Luis Del Rivero, has made a €9.5bn (£6.4bn) hostile takeover bid for Eiffage, its French rival, trying to succeed where few others have dared to place their flags.

Already, Sarko's close advisors such as Patrick Devedjian, ex-industry minister, have denounced Sacyr's move which follows Ferrovial's purchase of airports operator BAA in the UK, Abertis's stalled bid for Italian motorway operator Autostrade and Acciona's decision to join Italy's Enel in thwarting Eon's bid for Endesa.

Riding on the Spanish property boom (prices are up 150% in 10 years but now falling) and the stellar growth in Spain's economy, these construction groups - and companies in other sectors such as banking - are foresaking the traditional overseas markets for Spanish expansion in Latin America in favour of Old Europe.

The Sacyr/Eiffage saga is riveting for more than just its obvious symbolic value (Eiffage traces its roots back to Gustav Eiffel of tower fame and built the Millau viaduct, the world's tallest bridge).

Last week Jean-Francois Riverato, its chairman, barred 89 Spanish investors holding 17.5% of Eiffage's capital - Sacyr already owns 33% - from voting at the annual meeting on Sacyr's demands for five seats on the board.

He has accused them of voting in concert - a ruling put to the AMF, the French stock market regulator, to adjudge. Del Rivero, shouting about a "premeditated coup d'état" and "see you in court", walked out of the meeting and launched his hostile bid a day later.

On April 23 the Eiffage board rejected the all-share offer, demanding at least €129.30 a share (Sacyr was offering €104) and a cash element and adding that it would have to make a separate offer for its motorway toll business APRR. It said Sacyr's bid did not meet legal and regulatory requirements - and it's suing it for the way it had built up its stake.

Del Rivero says he wants to create a Franco-Spanish entity among the top three or four European companies operating in the property, construction and concessions sector - with France's Vinci and Bouygues and Germany's Hochtief.

This Spanish assault on a French corporate citadel illustrates the growing caesura within Europe between open market protagonists and protectionists. In the UK the conquistadors have bought Abbey (Santander), O2 (Telefonica) and Scottish Power (Iberdrola) with little or no resistance or regulatory restraint.

But in France, Italy and Spain itself, companies are encouraged to go on overseas forays but protected from foreign predators at home.

When Sarko becomes president, as he surely will, we can expect a reinforcement of this trend - and, probably, can say goodbye to the Doha round of global trade liberalisation talks.

A tale of two chairmen

They both ran their firms as chief executive for more than a decade and moved up, in the old (and discredited) German tradition, to become chairman.

But last week the fates of Heinrich von Pierer at Siemens and Ferdinand Piech at Volkswagen, both companies immersed in scandal and intrigue, were settled in dramatically different fashions: von Pierer was forced out and Piech confirmed in office for a further five years.

Both faced hostile questioning from small shareholder lobbies for their role in the scandals, with von Pierer showing contrition and Piech glacial contempt. But, in the end, Piech survived another assault on his integrity thanks to the guaranteed support of the majority stakes held by Porsche and Lower Saxony and, above all, the IG Metall union representatives on the board. Von Pierer bowed out - without admitting responsibility - a shattered man after losing the union's confidence and that of key shareholder representatives on the board.

Arguably, Piech's "sins" were more glaring but his position unassailable because of the power nexus - the time-honoured collusion between capital and labour - at the heart of the VW group he had built up and extended.

So, in the end his actions were approved at the AGM by 98% of the voting equity holders. "Just like in the old GDR (communist East Germany)," a Porsche insider laughed wickedly.

Roaming in the Brussels corridors of power

Even for those of us inside the Brussels beltway, the arguments surrounding "roaming" (making and receiving calls on mobile phones in another EU country) can be baffling and the political procedures for reaching a deal obscure.

The GSM Association, the industry's indefatigable lobby, says the EU's proposed regulation is more redolent of action in a (communist) planned economy and amounts to unprecedented price-fixing.

BEUC, the pan-European consumer lobby, backed by Viviane Reding, the telecoms commissioner, says it's a response to obvious market failure.

The industry lobby says she is playing to the populist gallery, trying to prove to the 439 million mobile subscribers in Europe that the EU is acting on their behalf.

She accuses it of an exorbitant rip-off, gorging on excessive profits.

So, who's right?

BEUC has repeatedly said that the operators have grossly over-estimated the impact on their revenues and profits of the proposed cap on prices, saying that the industry's estimate of a €500m cut in investment is a mere bagatelle (worth at most 1.5%), profits would go down just 0.5% and its own proposals, which would undercut all those on offer, would save consumers €3.5bn a year.

The industry, which has secured substantial backing from Britain, France and Germany (the current EU president), has finally unearthed some figures of its own.

Based on an (unpublished) study by consultants AT Kearney, it says that if the EU were to adopt the caps proposed by the European parliament's industry committee (ITRE), that is, €0.40 for making a call abroad and €0.15 for receiving one, its revenues would be down €4.4bn a year on 2005 - even after increased traffic prompted by lower prices.

Retail revenues would be down €2.6bn and wholesale revenues €1.8bn. But it admits that roaming revenues amounted to just €8.5bn out of total sales of €150bn or less than 6%. Peanuts and easily recuperable elsewhere, not just through increased domestic charges.

If the numbers are confusing, the political processes of reaching a deal are even more so. The last EU summit said it wanted one in time for the summer holiday season but that means getting the three players - council of ministers, parliament and commission - singing from the same hymn sheet, with telecoms ministers signing up on June 7 and the regulation published, unusually rapidly, in the Journal Officiel for entering into force on July 1.

It all looked to be on course until the German presidency published its latest "compromise" plans - an upping of the roaming rates 27 ministers had already approved in early March and a clear signal to the parliament that governments run the Brussels show.

So horse-trading in the "trilogue" discussions (among the three institutions) has begun in earnest ahead of the vote by all 785 MEPs on May 9.

"We don't know where the dice will roll on this one," says Aoife Sexton of the industry lobby. Well, it increasingly looks as if its campaign is paying off - and Viv's dreams of a 70% cut in charges will turn out wildly optimistic.

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