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Oil sector begins recovery

This article is more than 16 years old

Shares in oil group Royal Dutch Shell were under pressure today on talk it may have been guiding down analysts' forecasts for the third quarter.

Something similar happened with rival BP a few days ago, but BP indicated at the time it was not giving out any information that was not already in the market.

Shell, which is due to report results later this month, saw its A shares fall as low as £19.47 at one point before recovering to close unchanged at £19.85. Part of the uncertain mood in the sector could be traced to US group Chevron, which last night announced its third quarter results would be lower than the second quarter figures because of a fall in refining margins.

As for BP, it slipped 0.5p to 580p. Citigroup said in a note it expected the company to publish the first results of a restructuring plan tomorrow. "We anticipate that these measures will involve the re-allocation of personnel from financial roles to operational posts, but that there will be no wide-reaching cost saving programme based on the restructuring," said the bank.

It also forecast a 19% year on year fall in third quarter net income when BP unveils results on 23 October.

Elsewhere credit information group Experian was the biggest faller in the leading index, slumping 38p to 505p after it reported a slowdown in sales growth in the first quarter, and indicated the problems in the US mortgage market would hit its LowerMyBills business across the Atlantic.

By the close, the FTSE 100 had reversed earlier falls to end 17.6 points higher at 6633.0, although traders said volumes were unspectacular.

Heading in the right direction was Northern Rock, continuing its Lazarus-like recovery. It added 66.75p to 273.5p as hedge fund trader Jon Wood revealed he had taken a 4.03% stake in the bank through his SRM Global Master fund. Dealers said there were also signs of people having to buy shares to cover their short positions.

But HBOS lost 29.5p to 926p as Lehman cut its recommendation from overweight to underweight.

"We expect UK mortgage sector profit pools to be negatively impacted in 2008 by lower volume growth, higher retail and wholesale funding costs and the fallout from a slowdown in the property market," said Lehman, noting that HBOS was trading at a 10% premium to the UK domestic banking sector.

Still with housing finance, buy-to-let mortgage lender Paragon fell 17.25p to 280.75p.

Analysts at Landsbanki said the pre-budget report changes to capital gains tax should benefit buy-to-let investors, but they expressed caution about Paragon's funding. In September the company said it was funded until next year, although the liquidity problems in the money markets could see a rise in securitisation costs.

Landsbanki said: "The uncertainty on funding is likely to continue to be a drag on the share price, while we wait for others to test the securitisation markets. Until there is more visibility on funding, we expect the group to continue to soft pedal on lending even if demand remains strong in the market."

Elsewhere, there was also said to be short covering in fund management group Schroders, up 81p to £15.00.

The supermarket group J Sainsbury edged up 2p to 581.5p despite the company revealing a slowdown in second half growth which it blamed on the recent bad weather. Investors, however, are more interested to hear any updates on the proposed 600p-a-share bid approach from Qatari-backed group Delta Two.

Still with retailers, Woolworths rose 1.75p to 20.5p on vague talk of a possible bid from Morrison Supermarkets, down 1p to 286.5p. Yesterday, it may be recalled, analysts at Kaupthing suggested Woolies could benefit from renting out surplus floor space to grocers such as Morrison, Asda or the Co-op.

Cadbury Schweppes added 15.5p to 616p as the company — to virtually no one's surprise — called off the planned sale of its £7bn US drinks business and decided to demerge it instead.

Miners benefited from a positive note from Credit Suisse.

It said: "The miners are poised for a major rally, in our view. The catalyst is likely to be a breakout in copper that has so far failed to breach the magical $4.00 (£1.96) per pound that was reached in April 2006. [This breakout] should send a clear message that the equity markets are significantly undervaluing copper producers which seem to be implying a long term copper price of only $1.50-$1.60 per pound. This compares with [the current] price of $3.65 per pound and the five-year price of $2.50 per pound."

So Xstrata climbed 146p to £34.55, Kazakhmys was 61p better at £15.24 and Antofagasta added 33p to 836.5p.

Lower down the market Alphameric jumped 12p to 28p as it announced it had received a number of bid approaches. The company's shares plummetted last month when it warned that it would need emergency funding after a dispute with the major UK bookmakers over its TV racing service.

But Magners cider group C&C fell nearly 11% to €5.36 (£3.71) after half-year operating profits fell more than 30%. The Irish group had already issued two warnings earlier this year.

Aim-listed e-learning business Intellego was steady at 2.25p despite news that Moulton Brown entrepreneur Charles Denton had raised his stake from 21.87% at the end of September to 22.36%. Traders said they would not be surprised to see Denton make a bid for the company.

Finally, veterinary group CVS made a good start to life as an Aim company. It raised £92.7m in an oversubscribed placing at 205p a share, and today it closed at 228.5p.

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