Glowing times ahead for uranium

By Daily Mail Reporter
Updated: 05:51 EDT, 29 October 2007

British Energy's woes with its ageing plants are a warning of the problems the nuclear industry can cause.

They erupted just as uranium miners scent an upturn in their fortunes, which have been waning since the uranium price fell to $75 last month. Now it is back at $80 per pound.

BE has missed opportunities more than once, so it would not be surprising if it missed a global upturn. That is just what seems in prospect, judging by the mood at industry gatherings in the past fortnight.

Miners at a series of meetings hosted by broker BMO Capital Markets expressed optimism that the price slide was over. It followed an astonishing two-year price surge from $22 per pound in the 'spot' price (for immediate delivery) to $138 in June.

It was hardly surprising that speculators took profits. More selling came when the US decided to unload some of its strategic reserve.

Some investors will wish to steer clear of nuclear power. Others who followed our uranium tips on the way up - and subsequent advice to take some profits - have done well. Jamie Strauss, at BMO, who called both the upturn and the subsequent shake-out, now believes the fall is over.

The industry believes demand for primary (newly mined) uranium will treble by 2030. That could push the spot price from $80 to $100 a pound over the winter, although the long-term price (now $95) is more relevant to the industry.

Like it or not - and many do not - nuclear power is hard to ignore as the world runs short of oil and gas, and the crude oil price rises above $90 a barrel. This week Germany's Energy Watch Group argued that global oil production has already peaked, and will halve by 2030.

That is more pessimistic than other forecasts, but if correct, oil could pass $100 and head for $200. EWG points out that the average size of a new oil find has plum- meted from 527m barrels in the 1980s to 20m recently.

That reinforces the case for green and 'clean' energy. But it also underlines the difficulty of doing without nuclear, which supplies one fifth of UK electricity, two thirds of French power and a large slice in other parts of Europe and the US.

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The number of new nuclear reactors planned around the world is growing steadily - from 222 in January to 304 in August. Of these China accounts for 114. Not all will be built as governments ponder their impact. Strauss said: 'Undoubtedly the complexity of changes in government policies and the environmental implications are a recipe for delays. But the nuclear recovery is for uranium under way.'

This bodes well for one of our previous tips, UrAsia Energy, which merged with Canada's SXR to form Uranium One. With mines in South Africa and Kazakhstan and prospects in the US, it will be among the world leaders. Quoted in Canada, it is likely to seek a London quote in 2008 (if it stays independent; there are market rumours of a bid from Canada's Cameco).

Uranium One shares are about C$12.23 (just under 618p). If you bought UrAsia at our tip price of 140p, you have almost doubled your money. The shares still look cheap. So does Paladin Resources, which BMO rates as a well managed company, uranium with a producing mine in Namibia and a second on the way in Malawi. At A$7.84 (347p) it has already made money for Investment Extra readers and should make some more.

For those who prefer to stay closer to home, London-quoted Geiger Counter is a well regarded sector fund. First tipped here at 68.3p, it has been as high as 127p and is now 10034p. Recent months have shown the impact of speculation, so if you buy, set stop loss levels 20% below your entry price.

But the long-term energy shortage is worsening, and that is the gap uranium miners believe they can fill.