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The Investment Column: Pru's geographical diversity is a major plus for investors

Corin Group; Ashmore

Alistair Dawber
Friday 18 April 2008 00:00 BST
Comments

Our view: Hold for now

Share price: 67.5p (-8p)

Thank goodness for Asia. Particularly if you are a Prudential shareholder.

The insurance group posted its first-quarter results yesterday, which showed that while sales in Asia, which now account for more than half of the company's business, had grown by 35 per cent on the same period last year, the US division had a miserable three months, with sales dropping by 7 per cent.

According to the group's chief executive, Mark Tucker, the US performance was down to the Pru's rivals not playing cricket. "We don't like loss leaders in the insurance business," he said, adding that some of the group's competitors were offering uneconomic deals which were being offered at "silly" prices.

Investors should take heart from the Asian performance. The firm has good positions in a number of markets, and is spending a lot of time developing Islamic compliant packages for customers in Indonesia and Malaysia. Pru also appears to have resolved many of the troubles that beset its UK arm a few years ago, with a sales growth of 4 per cent in the first quarter.

Even the news from the US is not entirely bleak. The analysts generally agree that the Pru's "silly" competitors will have to raise prices, and they say that acquisitions in North America are likely soon.

The company is exposed to the equity markets, which must worry anyone given the market's volatility in recent months.

Mr Tucker points out that the group's geographical diversity is a major plus for investors, as is the company's model, which being retirement-focused, ensures steady returns over the long term.

The Pru is devoting more of its time and energy to Asia, and with good reason, looking at yesterday'sstatement.

Analysts at Charles Stanley say that given the dampened market, the numbers "were not bad at all". Investors should be encouraged. Hold for now.

Corin Group

Our view: Buy

Share price: 442.5p (+13.5p)

Investors worried about where to park their investments will be pleased to hear of Corin, which makes orthopaedic medical devices. In the current market, it is hard to find a group that is both defensive and has a good story to tell about the future.

For several years the company has been bumbling about without making a serious impact on the consciousness of investors. That was before it happened upon Cormet, a hip resurfacing system, distributed in the US by Stryker. On the back of Cormet, the company's sales in the US are up 35 per cent on last year, with profits up 86 per cent. All this comes in the face of a weak dollar, which the interim chief executive, Simon Hartley, reckons has cost the group £800,000 in profit. The company has also suffered from a general US Department of Justice investigation into the payment of surgeons for training. Mr Hartley says this is now resolved and payments have been approved.

Analysts at Oriel Securities say the group is in "start-up phase" in the US, and assuming it can keep pace with orders, it is on to a winner.

Those at Nomura say that the non-US results are not too impressive. Mr Hartley says that products targeting Europe and Australia are in development, but concedes they will take some time to come to fruition.

Corin looks set to have a pretty good year. Now that the worries about surgeons' training have been resolved and largely because Stryker is on board as the group's distributor, there cannot be many reasons to avoid Corin stock. Buy.

Ashmore

Our view: Sell

Share price: 290p (-11.5p)

Ashmore is an excellent long-term punt for buyers. The company has a stellar record in emerging market fund management over more than 15 years and has a great history of returns for its investors.

Sadly, in the short term, life does not look so rosy. Ashmore stated yesterday that funds under management had dropped off $200m, from $36.5bn at the end of December to $36.3bn at the end of last month. This is a concern, say watchers at Evolution. "Generally, I'm a huge fan of Ashmore," says one. "But the first-quarter outflows are disappointing. This group is used to seeing quarterly inflows of 8 to 10 per cent."

The asset manager's finance director, Graeme Dell, concedes that the company is "less certain in the short term," but that its exposure to emerging market local currency bonds, equities and distressed debt makes the group a compelling case for a patient investment.

The market was not impressed by the statement yesterday, with Ashmore being one of the biggest fallers on the FTSE 250.

Ashmore has a solid history in the emerging markets and for those happy to invest and forget about the money for a while, it is a good company. The danger for the group is that most in the market will follow Evolution's lead after the analysts downgraded the group from "buy" to "add", "signalling that in the short term, things could be a little tricky and investors could probably make more money elsewhere". Sell.

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