FTSE in-depth: Cowell still calls shots at ITV

By Geoff Foster for MailOnline
Updated: 03:49 EDT, 14 April 2011

Showbiz entrepreneur Simon Cowell has got ITV's bosses over a barrel.

Geoff Foster: ITV bosses are scared stiff that X Factor could flop if Cowell quits

Industry sources suggest that chief executive Adam Crozier and his executive team are considering rearranging their entire schedule and could put the eighth series of the X Factor back a few months to comply with Cowell's plans.

They are scared stiff that the show could flop if Cowell decides to quit – taking Cheryl Cole with him – to launch the US version of X Factor. It is easy to see why.

The last series of X Factor ran all autumn, dominating peak time viewing on both Saturday and Sunday evenings.

The 40 shows on ITV1 are said to have brought in more than £75m in advertising, plus revenues from telephone votes.

Analysts reckon the benefit to ITV is almost £100m. Down from a pre-Japanese earthquake high of 95.85p, the shares have drifted on a slowing UK TV market and most recently on fears that Cowell will only appear in the final X Factor show.

They edged up to 75.35p yesterday as Japanese broker Nomura reiterated its target price of 115p and made reassuring comments about a possible Cowell no-show.

Analyst Matthew Walker said that an analysis of the audience performance of the current series of American Idol, which Cowell also left after several years, shows that it has not suffered as much as had been expected from his absence. Revenue has not been hurt by Cowell's leaving.

The picture looked a lot brighter for the Footsie as buyers returned following better-than- xpected UK February employment data and solid US retail sales figures.

It closed 45.97p points better at 6,010.44, while Wall Street opened 51 points to the good. Sentiment on the Street of Dreams was additionally boosted by news of JP Morgan Chase's 70% leap in first-quarter profits to £3.4bn.

Confused.com-to-elephant.com motor insurer Admiral accelerated 21p to 1629p following an Automobile Association (AA) report that the average car insurance premiums had risen by a record 40% in 12 months.

It heaps more pain on motorists who are currently having to fork out between £80-£100 to fill their tanks with petrol.

Thriving supports services group WS Atkins advanced 38.50p to 727p following a positive trading update. Results for the full-year are expected to be ahead of market expectations with a recovery in the Middle East driving outperformance.

Consensus pre-tax profit forecasts for the year currently stand at between £88m and £97m. Broker Espirito Santo now expects a figure above £97m and advises clients now is an opportune time to invest in well-managed infrastructure consultants.

Chip maker ARM Holdings added 38p at 598p after Morgan Stanley said that Microsoft's developer conference in Las Vegas had highlighted a version of Internet Explorer 10 running on an ARM-designed processor.

After 9% shareholder Allison, the US engineer, committed to invest a further £6.8m to secure its rights to a non-exclusive licence in 2013, shares of transmission group Torotrak soared to 49.25p and closed 5.25p better at 45.50p.

Broker Charles Stanley Securities tipped the stock at 20p in late November and has now lifted its target price to 55p from 40p.

Sources also suggest that Allison, which is planning to float on the US exchange, will launch a full-scale cash offer for Torotrak once it goes public.

A take-out price would be around 80p a share. Filtronic, a maker of mobile phone network equipment, plummeted 5.13p or 16.4 per cent to 26.88p. Investors hung up after the company warned that its Point-to-Point business had been hit by customers phasing out older technology much faster than it had expected.

Multibrand home shopping company Flying Brands, in which Sir Tom Hunter's West Coast Capital owns 27%, fell 7p to a 52-week low of 33p on a profits warning.

Full year profits will be well below expectations as its traditional flowers business continues to be hit by increasing competition and weak consumer spending.

Singer Capital Markets downgraded its current year pre-tax profit forecast by £2m to £0.25m with a similar reduction to £2m for next year.

Following news of a slowdown in revenues from a major customer, software group Zoo Digital slumped 7p to 44p.

Solo Oil more-than-doubled to a whopping 1.00p after reporting 'extremely encouraging' results from the Aurable Number 5 well in south western Ontario, Canada.

Stratex International firmed 0.3p to 7.13p in response to good results from its Blackrock licence in Ethiopia and the discovery of new epithermal gold mineralisation across four targets at the licence.

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