Merry Lidl Christmas for German discount supermarkets

The German discount chains are set to “win Christmas” for the second year running, with a quarter of British grocery shoppers saying they are more likely to head to Aldi or Lidl than they were last year.

The survey results are a blow to the hopes of the struggling big four – Asda, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s and Tesco – which have banked on price cuts and a blizzard of discount vouchers to win back shoppers.

One in 10 of those surveyed by Marketing Sciences for the Guardian said they planned to do their main Christmas food shop at either Aldi or Lidl.

Traditionally, shoppers have shied away from cut-price stores as they prepare to treat their families at Christmas, instead heading to the big four or to upmarket grocers such as Marks & Spencer and Waitrose.

But last year analysts decreed the discounters had won Christmas as shoppers showed they were as prepared to shop around for bargains on festive food as they were in their normal weekly shop.

Just days into the new year Tesco and Morrisons were forced to warn that profits would be lower than expected amid heavy competition from their upstart rivals.

This year it appears there will be no let-up, with a fifth of shoppers planning to buy at least part of their Christmas meal at Aldi, more than are planning to go to M&S, and 16% expecting to visit Lidl, Marketing Sciences said.

Both German chains have opened more stores, adapted their ranges to British shoppers’ tastes and embarked on expensive advertising campaigns this year, as well as cutting prices on everyday items such as milk to ensure they remain cheaper than traditional supermarkets.

“Campaigns like ‘Lidl surprises’ and tempting offers on premium items, such as champagne and lobster, are clearly gaining traction with shoppers,” said Anna Herron, a director at the research firm.

Of those surveyed, 37% said they would buy at least part of their Christmas Day meal from one of the German discounters, while 5% said they would visit Poundland.

Aldi was also confirmed as the UK’s fastest growing grocer in the latest market share data released by Kantar Worldpanel. Its sales rose 22.3% in the 12 weeks to 7 December, although this was a slowdown from the 25.5% revealed last month. Lidl’s growth rose to 18.3% from the 16.8% recorded in the three months to 9 November.

The performance of the two discounters was in marked contrast to the UK’s biggest supermarkets, all of which saw sales fall. Tesco sales fell by 2.7%, although this was its best sales performance since June.

Andrew Stevens, a retail analyst at Verdict, said: “There is every reason [to believe] the discounters will do well again this Christmas. They will have a big impact but they will not blow anyone out of the water.

“Last year was all about shopper promiscuity. Shoppers were switching across all the brands. Tesco not only lost shoppers to the discounters but to Waitrose and Sainsbury’s. The real trend is promiscuity.”

Stevens said the discounters were likely to find sales growth increasingly hard to come by.

“We are going to reach a point relatively soon where they are going to find it very difficult to steal market share from the big four. They are getting to a point where there is little they can do except open stores and that will not be that easy as they have struggled to find suitable sites,” Stevens said.

The figures tallied with data from credit and debit card provider Barclaycard, which revealed this week that the number of transactions at discount supermarkets so far this year was up 31% compared with 2013, while at mainstream supermarkets transactions were down 4.1%.

The value of each transaction at a discount store is generally lower but the figures nevertheless suggest a significant shift in behaviour.

“The appeal of value retailers is even more obvious at Christmas,” said Valerie Soranno Keating, chief executive of Barclaycard.

“In 2013 spend at discounters in November and December soared, while the mainstream retailers saw spending fall. Unless they up the stakes, the battle for Christmas looks tipped in favour of the discounters.”

• This article was amended on 17 December 2014. A press office error led us to refer to Danni Findlay as spokeswoman for Marketing Sciences. This has been corrected.