LONDON (ShareCast) - (Sharecast News) - Berenberg upgraded Anglo American and downgraded Glencore on Wednesday as it took a look at the metals and mining sector.
The bank said current market conditions have challenged a number of preconceptions about investing, but even with some commodity prices touching all-time highs, it remains bullish on the mining sector and believes that conviction equity opportunities will continue to make alpha in this space.

Berenberg said it thinks think "the genie is out of the bottle" for a lot of commodity prices, i.e. that prices will stay higher for longer.

It lifted Anglo American to 'buy' from 'hold' and hiked the price target to 3,000p from 2,300p as it said the "transformational" and value-creative M&A deal with Teck Resources will result in Anglo shares continuing to outperform, but the shares also offer iron ore exposure.

"To recap, we had been more cautious about Anglo American's simplification strategy and we still think it has its headwinds - e.g. it needs to re-sell the metallurgical coal business after the original sale to Peabody Energy fell through in 2025; it is awaiting competition approval from Brazilian authorities; and the sale of its diamonds business, De Beers, will be challenging, we think, due to weak market conditions in the diamond space," it said.

"However, more important is some game-changing M&A which we think will create value - the first is the merger of equals with Teck Resources, which unlocks attractive synergies between Anglo's share in Collahuasi and Teck's adjacent Quebrada Blanca stake (both Chile), and the second is the Los Bronces-Andina (Chile) joint mine plan with Codelco, again unlocking adjacency synergies."

Berenberg downgraded Glencore to 'hold' from 'buy', keeping the price target at 350p as it took a conservative view into year end.

"The market is focused on Glencore's copper production, we think, with the company guiding to a H2 weighting of 60% against full-year guidance of 850-890kt," it said.

"We currently stand at 224kt for Q3, versus Q2's 176kt, and that leaves 282kt to be delivered in Q4 to meet the bottom end of guidance, which we think would be a quarterly record based on the existing asset base."

Berenberg said it looks as though the market is taking a conservative view on Glencore's ability to meet its guidance, although any slips will likely be viewed as a negative.

"Elsewhere, we expect cobalt volumes of 11.5kt (no exports are expected), zinc volumes of 255kt, lead volumes of 47kt, gold volumes of 163koz, silver volumes of 4.9moz, metallurgical coal volumes of 7.8mt and thermal coal volumes of 22.7mt. We do not expect any guidance changes, but the largest risk to guidance sits with copper, we think."

Berenberg said its "best ideas" are Rio Tinto and Anglo American.

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