After a nervous July, during which stock markets fell as oil reached a new all time high of USD 147 a barrel (WTI), and a relief rally of sorts in August as oil fell back below USD 100, global stock markets took fright in September as the continuing credit crunch led to acute strains in interbank lending and to bank failures.During the extremely challenging market conditions of the third quarter, the fund produced a negative return in both absolute and relative terms. This was driven by underlying fund performance, with just two holdings outperforming their respective benchmarks.On a regional basis, all regions suffered and detracted from performance. Despite underweight exposures to the UK, Pacific ex Japan, Europe and emerging markets, any exposure to equities caused the fund to suffer.Our overweights in the US and Japan also dragged on performance. Both the Greater China Fund and the Emerging Markets Fund were ahead of their respective benchmarks.
The global economy is heading towards recession in 2009. The proprietary lead indicators produced by our currency team have had a great track record in past months and have consistently warned of a painful slide in activity. At present they are warning of possible recessions in the US, Europe and Japan.