LONDON (ShareCast) - (Sharecast News) - Danske Bank: "The first thing to look out for is the Labour's motion of no confidence in May's government tomorrow. [...] PM Theresa will most likely survive the vote (remember the Conservatives cannot force her to resign as party leader for another year after she won the party confidence vote in December). Vote takes place at 20:00 CET.
"[...] A majority in the House of Commons has clearly indicated it is against a no-deal Brexit, which would only happen by accident, as it is the default option (15% probability). We continue to believe the probabilities of a soft Norway-style Brexit and snap election are low (10% and 5%, respectively)."The two most likely outcomes are: either May's deal (or something very similar) passing at a later stage as pressure builds on the politicians or a second EU referendum (40% and 30%, respectively) but British politics need to settle before we find out which way the UK will go."

TD Securities: "The size of tonight's defeat is significant, and indicates no clear path forward. The Prime Ministers insistence to continue on with the deal means that in many regards, nothing has changed. However, her reaching out across parties for discussions this week might mean an eventual pivot to a softer Brexit. A softer Brexit that included, say, a permanent Customs Union, might well command a majority in the house, which demonstrated a majority against a No-Deal Brexit in votes last week.

"In our view, tonight's result does little to materially change the odds of a 2nd referendum (and/or No Brexit) or a No-Deal Brexit. Our base case remains that some form of deal is agreed in the coming weeks/months, with an extension of Article 50 likely required to resolve bureaucratic procedures."

Capital Economics: "[...] Most importantly the size of the defeat appears to reduce the chances of the UK leaving the EU without a deal on 29th March. After all, the overwhelming consensus against May's deal means Parliament may now be able to gain greater control of Brexit and work towards a softer Brexit and/or a second referendum, which would almost certainly require the Article 50 negotiating period to be extended beyond 29th March.

"Tonight's result may therefore raise the chances of our "fudge and delay" scenario. That envisages a softer Norway-plus style Brexit being agreed later this year, thereby reducing the uncertainty that has been hampering economic growth and holding down the pound."

Oxford Economics: "So we think a general election is a low probability event. [...] Ultimately, the UK will leave the EU on 29 March without a deal unless Parliament agrees on a substantive, positive alternative (and that alternative must also be acceptable to the EU). All but a small minority of MPs are opposed to a "no-deal" scenario, but to avoid that outcome they must engage with the choices on offer. [...] We put the probability of the Withdrawal Agreement being implemented at 60%, with a 35% chance of "no deal" and just a 5% chance of a second referendum.

"We put the probability of the Withdrawal Agreement being implemented at 60%, with a 35% chance of "no deal" and just a 5% chance of a second referendum."

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