LONDON (ShareCast) - (Sharecast News) - The focus on Tuesday will be on the December employment report, given the critical role the still very strong jobs market in Britain - helped by low rates from the Bank of England - is playing in helping to keep the economy more or less 'humming along' - despite the facewinds from Brexit and from further afield.
Economists believe the UK unemployment rate held at 4.0% in December, even as growth in both base and headline average weekly earnings quickened a tad.

The rate of growth in core average earnings, specifically, is seen picking-up from a quarterly annualised pace of 3.3% for November to 3.4% in December.

But not everyone is on board with that notion, with analysts at RBC telling clients a dip in wage growth is plausible due to so-called 'base effects'.

Furthermore, and like Barclays, they see scope for the rate of unemployment to rise over the coming months, although this time around Barclays is among those expecting both headline and core wages will increase.

Even so, and as Pantheon Macroeconomics's Samuel Tombs pointed out, with households' real disposable income set to expand at a year-over-year clip of 2.0% in 2019, up from 1.3% in 2018, the outlook for the economy is on a solid footing, unless savings snap higher all of a sudden.

"So, with households' spending accounting for 63% of GDP and business investment just 9%, the downturn in capex would have to be enormous to drive the overall economy into a recession this year," he said.



Across the Channel, some analysts have expressed a keen interest in Tuesday's speeches from European Central Bank vice-president, Luis de Guindos, and chief economist Peter Praet, at 1015 GMT and 1500 GMT, respectively.

In particular, financial markets are keen for any further signals that fresh loans for the Eurozone banking sector might be in the works.

Further afield, in Japan, the finance ministry will release foreign trade data for January, with markets likely to hone in on the figures vis-a-vis China.



Meanwhile, in the background, investors will be keeping close tabs for any headlines out of the ministerial and vice-ministerial level trade talks between Washington and Beijing that are due to be held Stateside.



On the corporate side of things, the UK banking sector will be in the spotlight today, with annual results from HSBC and Bank of Georgia both due out.

For the former, UBS analysts anticipate the Asian-focused financial giant will deliver full-year adjusted profits of $4.775bn, for a CET1 ratio of 14.1% and a tangible net asset value per share of $7.0.

For Bank of Georgia, analysts at Numis have penciled-in fourth quarter profits before tax of 420m Georgain Lari, for a 6.3% increase versus the comparable year-ago period.

The broker expects the lender to report trading in-line with management's targets, with the rate of growth in the loan book in the mid to high teens, on the back of a sustained recovery in corporate lending.

Despite the group's "very good" credit quality and operating efficiency, Numis's James Hamilton said Bank of Georgia's net interest margins were set to continue falling gradually.

Tuesday February 19

INTERIMS

BHP Group, Blancco Technology Group, DotDigital Group

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

ZEW Survey (EU) - Economic Sentiment (10:00)

ZEW Survey (GER) - Current Situation (10:00)

ZEW Survey (GER) - Economic Sentiment (10:00)

Q4

Bank of Georgia Group

GMS

Low & Bonar

FINALS

Bank of Georgia Group, HSBC Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Spectris

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Walker Greenbank

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

CBI Industrial Trends Surveys (11:00)

Claimant Count Rate (08:30)

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