LONDON (ShareCast) - -Greek debt-swap participation rate estimated at 58%.
-Greek government confident of achieving rate of at least 75%.
-Admiral surges after full-year results.

London’s blue chips bounced back today, following yesterday’s sharp selling, with investors now looking to tomorrow’s Greek debt-swap deadline with cautious optimism, as more and more holders of the country’s bonds appear to be jumping on board.

Europe is awaiting a final decision on the Greek debt restructuring. Private investors have a Thursday deadline to decide if they will accept a debt exchange in which they will be required to take a 53.5% nominal haircut, in an agreement that would save Athens about €106bn (£88bn).

"We are optimistic that we will exceed the 75% participation threshold by far based on the data we have so far," an official from Greece’s finance ministry told Reuters. However, this falls short of the 90% participation rate needed to avoid the trigger of collective action clauses (CACs).

Citi analyst Mark Schofield said today that, "in our view, the activation of the CACs is highly likely and following on from that a credit event, triggering CDS payouts."

Nevertheless, a growing number of big banks have said that they will participate in the deal, including giants Societe Generale, Generali and UniCredit. All Greek banks are also said to be willing to accept. The latest estimate, according to Bloomberg TV, pins the participation rate at around 58%.

In other news, last night's "Super Tuesday" vote in the US saw Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney win the primary contest in the key state of Ohio, while also winning in Massachusetts, Idaho, Vermont and Virginia. The man who appears to be his main rival, Rick Santorum, hoovered up in Tennessee, Oklahoma and North Dakota.

ECONOMIC DATA

Shop price inflation in the UK eased to a 1.2% year-on-year rate of change in February, versus 1.4% the month before, according to the latest BRC-Nielsen survey data. Commenting on the data, Barclays says that the numbers validate their forecast that consumer price inflation will continue to fall back throughout 2012.

In a similar vein, Reuters reported today on recent remarks by Bank of England chief economist, Spencer Dale, in a BBC interview last week. Mr. Dale is quoted as having stated that, "I hope that by the late spring, early summer this year we should be in the low 3's and hopefully inflation will gradually come back down over the rest of the year towards our inflation target of 2%."

Permanent job placements in the UK rose to a nine-month high in February, according to the latest data released by consultants KPMG-REC.

Elsewhere, the US ADP employment report showed an increase of 216,000 in the pace of private sector job-creation, slightly above expectations.

ADMIRAL RACES AHEAD

Car insurance giant Admiral finished the day up 10% after deciding to pay a special dividend as it seeks to curb the number of high value bodily injury claims which have dented recent figures. The firm revealed that pre-tax profits were up 13% at £299m in 2011 with net revenue up 36% at £870.3m. Both those figures beat the consensus forecasts.

Nomura seemed pleased with the results, saying that the figures give comfort on prospective forecasts. The broker said that while there still remains some uncertainty regarding bodily injury claims - something that has plagued the stock over the last 12 months - the broker says that things have improved since the third quarter update.

British American Tobacco was the heaviest faller after trading without the right to its latest dividend. Other big movers that went ex-dividend today include FTSE 100 peers CRH, Serco and Standard Chartered and FTSE 250 stocks TUI Travel, Spirent Communications, Kesa Electricals, BlackRock World Mining Trust, Domino Printing Sciences and Renishaw.

Banking titan HSBC's sale of peripheral parts of its operations has continued with the sale of its general insurance businesses in Hong Kong, Singapore, Argentina and Mexico. Shares rose moderately, while sector peers Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and Lloyds were broadly flat.

Power systems giant Rolls-Royce edged higher after announcing that it will soon begin flight tests of an engine upgrade for the US Air Force's T56 turboprop engine.

FTSE 250: COBHAM SURGES AFTER HIKING DIVI

Shares in defence technology group Cobham jumped nearly 13% after raising its full-year dividend by a third on the back of strong profits and cash generation in 2011. While revenue fell 3%, the group gave an optimistic outlook for defence spending in the US. Jefferies reiterated its buy rating saying that the results appear 'robust and encouraging'.

Development, environmental and energy resources consultancy RPS Group rose after seeing full-year pre-tax profits come in marginally ahead of expectations.

Afren was making gains after well test results at its Okoro East oil discovery, offshore Nigeria, confirmed high quality oil in excellent reservoir sands. Future horizontal production wells at the project will be capable of yielding 4,500-7,000 barrels of oil per day each, the group predicts.

Aquarius Platinum was also moving up, buoyed by an upgrade from Panmure Gordon (to buy from sell).

BC

FTSE 100 - Risers
Admiral Group (ADM) 1,144.00p +10.00%
Essar Energy (ESSR) 107.00p +5.31%
ICAP (IAP) 394.40p +3.63%
Burberry Group (BRBY) 1,437.00p +3.16%
Schroders (Non-Voting) (SDRC) 1,235.00p +3.09%
Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 1,591.00p +2.98%
Evraz (EVR) 391.00p +2.89%
ARM Holdings (ARM) 549.50p +2.61%
InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) 1,419.00p +2.60%
Intertek Group (ITRK) 2,320.00p +2.56%

FTSE 100 - Fallers
British American Tobacco (BATS) 3,126.00p -2.05%
CRH (CRH) 1,263.00p -1.71%
Standard Chartered (STAN) 1,555.50p -0.61%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 1,230.00p -0.57%
National Grid (NG.) 645.50p -0.54%
International Power (IPR) 359.40p -0.50%
Cairn Energy (CNE) 319.70p -0.40%
BG Group (BG.) 1,465.00p -0.34%
Resolution Ltd. (RSL) 260.80p -0.31%
Royal Dutch Shell 'A' (RDSA) 2,247.50p -0.16%

FTSE 250 - Risers
Cobham (COB) 209.70p +12.56%
Cable & Wireless Worldwide (CW.) 33.55p +7.50%
Inmarsat (ISAT) 461.30p +6.49%
Bodycote (BOY) 403.80p +4.80%
Michael Page International (MPI) 464.10p +4.76%
Afren (AFR) 131.50p +4.70%
Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (AQP) 137.00p +4.66%
Drax Group (DRX) 516.50p +4.32%
Bwin.party Digital Entertainment (BPTY) 161.20p +3.93%
Imagination Technologies Group (IMG) 601.50p +3.80%

FTSE 250 - Fallers
Kesa Electricals (KESA) 68.55p -3.59%
TUI Travel (TT.) 188.00p -2.69%
Dixons Retail (DXNS) 14.62p -2.47%
Renishaw (RSW) 1,369.00p -2.14%
New World Resources A Shares (NWR) 478.60p -1.97%
COLT Group SA (COLT) 99.90p -1.58%
BlackRock World Mining Trust (BRWM) 698.00p -1.55%
Diploma (DPLM) 385.00p -1.51%
Exillon Energy (EXI) 198.50p -1.44%
SDL (SDL) 712.00p -1.39%

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