After a nervous July, during which stock markets fell as oil reached a new all time high of USD 147 a barrel (WTI), and a relief rally of sorts in August as oil fell back below USD 100, global stock markets took fright in September as the continuing credit crunch led to acute strains in interbank lending and to bank failures.Amid these extremely challenging market conditions, JPM Multi Manager Growth produced a negative return in both absolute and relative terms. The biggest contributors to relative performance came from not holding the JPM Russian Securities Investment Trust or the Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust, as well as holding the Biotech Growth Trust.Detractors were a holding in RAB Special Situations and being underweight RIT Capital Partners and Alliance Trust. Not holding the Temple Bar Investment Trust was also negative.Whilst discounts to net asset value widened across the universe from 12.0% at the end of June to 12.6% at the end of September, this figure is slightly skewed by the increased number of hedge funds in the universe with tighter discounts. Across the market, biotech funds performed well, with financial and commodity strategies losing out.
The global economy is heading towards recession in 2009. The proprietary lead indicators produced by our currency team have had a great track record in past months and have consistently warned of a painful slide in activity. At present they are warning of possible recessions in the US, Europe and Japan.