Thursday preview: US data barrage, Barclays in the spotlight
By Alexander Bueso
Date: Wednesday 17 Feb 2021
(Sharecast News) - Financial markets' attention on Thursday will continue to be trained on the US where investors will be digesting a barrage of key economic indicators.
Chief among those are weekly jobless claims figures, which economists expect will reveal a dip from the prior week's reading of 793,000 to 775,000.
Investors will also be keeping close tabs on the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's manufacturing sector survey for February.
No major economic releases are scheduled in the UK.
Across the Channel meanwhile, the focus will be on the release at 1230 GMT of the minutes of the European Central Bank's most recent policy meeting deliberations.
Further afield, rate-setters in Indonesia are expected to announce a cut in the central bank's seven-day repurchase rate from 3.75% to 3.5%.
Ahead of Barclays's latest full-year results, UBS analyst Jason Napier told clients he was forecasting fourth quarter profits before tax of £153m, which would be flat on a year ago.
The lender's tier one capital cushion was however expected to print at 14.6%, for an 80 basis point increase on the year before.
Net interest margins were seen largely stable in comparison to the preceding two quarters, for a full-year drop of 50 basis points to 2.59% on average.
However, net interest income was seen falling by 8% on the quarter and by 20% in comparison to a year earlier.
Looking to 2021, the shift in mix towards mortgages and government guaranteed lending for small and medium enterprises and away from credit cards seen during the prior year was expected to weigh on NII.
Commercial and investment bank revenues were also expected to normalise.
All told, income was seen falling by 5% over the course of the year ahead.
Even so, profitability was expected to improve as loan losses diminished with potential for "outperformance" on capital distributions, the latter possibly thanks in part to loan loss reserve releases in 2022.
"Given the attractive valuation, we remain Buyers of Barclays," Napier said in the same research note sent to clients.
Thursday 18 February
INTERIMS
Hays, Wilmington
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
FRP Advisory Group , Mattioli Woods, Mountview Estates, NCC Group
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
M Winkworth
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
BP, GlaxoSmithKline, NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited Red, Octopus Renewables Infrastructure Trust , Pershing Square Holdings Ltd NPV, Pershing Square Holdings Ltd NPV (USD), Raven Property Group Limited Cum Red Pref, Royal Dutch Shell 'A', Royal Dutch Shell 'B', Tritax Eurobox (EUR), Tritax Eurobox (GBP)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Building Permits (US) (13:30)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Housing Starts (US) (13:30)
Import and Export Price Indices (US) (13:30)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
Philadelphia Fed Index (US) (13:30)
Q4
Smith & Nephew
FINALS
Barclays, Indivior, Primary Health Properties, Smith & Nephew
EGMS
Aminex, Norish Units, Ormonde Mining
AGMS
Ormonde Mining, Oxford Metrics, React Group , Ridgecrest
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Blackrock Throgmorton Trust, Driver Group, Henderson Opportunities Trust, Impax Asset Management Group, Imperial Brands , Jersey Electricity 'A' Shares, Sureserve Group
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