US durable goods orders fall short of forecasts in June, but underlying demand strong
By Alexander Bueso
Date: Thursday 21 Oct 2021
(Sharecast News) - Demand for goods made to last more than three years grew a bit more slowly than anticipated last month, but economists said that the underlying trends remained strong.
According to the US Department of Commerce, durable goods orders grew at a month-on-month clip of 0.8% to reach $257.7bn.
That was less than 2.1% increase that economists had penciled-in, but was offset in part by an upwards revision to May's increase from 2.3% to 3.2%.
Worth noting, orders for motor vehicles and parts dipped by 0.3% on the month to reach $49.84bn, dragged lower by the ongoing global shortfall in semiconductor supplies.
Nonetheless, so-called 'core' capital goods orders, which excludes those for aircraft and from defence, were up by 0.5% on the month, as expected, alongside a small upwards revision to May's print.
More importantly, as Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics pointed out, they jumped at an annualised pace of 18.1% in the second quarter.
"The ISM manufacturing survey suggests orders growth will settle at about 10-to-15% in the third quarter. Bearing in mind that the pre-Covid trend was flat, this is a remarkable performance, thanks to soaring earnings and massive support from fiscal policy," Shepherdson explained.
"As a result, companies in aggregate are cash-rich, but they remain asset-constrained after a decade of under-investment following the financial crisis. Accordingly, we expect capex to continue rising at a rapid pace for the foreseeable future."
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