German CPI may have undershot forecasts in November, state data show
By Alexander Bueso
Date: Tuesday 29 Nov 2022
(Sharecast News) - Preliminary inflation data for November published in several German states pointed to slightly below consensus readings for national headline price figures due out later in the same session.
Annual rate increases in consumer prices were recorded in North-Rhine Westphalia, Brandenburg, Bavaria and Saxony.
In Brandenburg, which economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics believed should offer a good bead on the national figures, household energy inflation dipped from 59% year-on-year during October to 56.8% in November.
A decline in the cost electricity offset a rise in gas prices, while the price of inflation fuels for cars dropped from 21.8% to 13.2%.
At the core level, it was a "mixed" picture, said Claus Vistesen, Pantheon's chief Eurozone economist.
Household appliances inflation slipped from 8.8% to 8.5% - the first fall for a "long time".
Leisure inflation also fell, while hotel and restaurant prices increased, as did those of clothing and shoes.
Even so, Vistesen suspected that core inflation at the national level was unchanged in November, while slowing on a harmonised basis on account of base effects.
Consensus was for the national CPI data due out at 1300 GMT to reveal a rise in the annual rate of increase from 10.4% to 10.7%.
In harmonised terms however, headline CPI was seen slowing from 11.6% to 11.3%.
Meanwhile, a preliminary reading for euro area CPI due out on 30 November, had been expected to reveal that the annual headline CPI rate held at 10.6% and at 5.0% at the core level.
Vistesen added: "[Slower than expected headline inflation in Germany in November], combined, with the much bigger than expected fall in Spanish inflation reported earlier this morning offer support for ECB doves pushing to a slowdown in the pace of policy tightening next month, to a 50bp hike, after 75bp in the previous two meetings."
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