Weekly US jobless claims edge up
By Alexander Bueso
Date: Thursday 03 Aug 2023
(Sharecast News) - Jobless claims in the U.S. rose slightly during over the preceding week but continued to point to a tight jobs market.
According to the U.S. Department of Labor, in seasonally adjusted terms, initial jobless claims rose by 6,000 over the week ending on 29 July to reach 227,000.
Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast 227,000.
Meanwhile, the four-week moving average, which aims to smooth out the volatility in the figures from one week to the next retreated by 5,500 to reach 228,250.
Secondary unemployment claims, which are those not being filed for the first time and referencing the week ending on 22 July, rose by 21,000 to 1.7m.
"The jobless claims data are consistent with labor market conditions that are probably still too tight for the Fed," Nancy Vanden Houten, lead US economist at Oxford Economics, said in response to the latest figures.
"We think last week's increase in the federal funds rate will be the last of the cycle, but the risks are still tilted in favor of one more rate hike if evidence of softer labor market conditions doesn't materialize by the September meeting."
For his part, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the claims numbers increasingly suggested that the trend had fallen since spring.
That was hard to square with increasing WARN notices and higher searches on Google for "unemployment benefits", he added.
"That will mean that any downshift in payrolls over the next few months will be dependent mostly on slowing gross hiring.
"The NFIB survey suggests that is likely, but given the falling trend in layoff announcements we are keen to see what the July survey says later today."
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