Tuesday preview: nCoV Coronavirus, Crest Nicholson in focus
By Alexander Bueso
Date: Monday 27 Jan 2020
(Sharecast News) - The focus of trading on Tuesday will in all likelihood continue to be on the news-flow around the new nCoV coronavirus in China, as investors try and spy any slowdown in the momentum of new cases, which could be rapidly reflected in share prices.
According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, using the precedent of the SARS epidemic in 2003, markets were now in the middle of the first of three phases, which they termed the "escalation" stage, when the virus was spreading across geographies.
In 2003, escalation lasted from 16 November 2002 to 10 April 2003 and we would now be somewhere in the middle of it.
But from 12 March 2003, share prices began bouncing back sharply.
Against that backdrop, at 1100 GMT the Confederation of British Industry will publish its Distributive Trades Survey for January.
It will be followed by a preliminary reading on US durable goods orders for December at 1330 GMT, alongside survey readings for house prices in November and consumer confidence in January.
On the corporate front, all eyes will be on the UK housing sector as Crest Nicholson and McCarthy&Stone publish their latest full-year figures.
For the former, analysts at UBS have penciled-in an approximately 4.0% drop in revenues year-on-year to reach £1.0bn on the back of total group sales of £1.1bn.
With the homebuilder having already guided towards profits before tax of £120-130.0m, UBS calculated that its operating margins in housing would come in at 12.6%.
Nevertheless, the key would be the company's medium-term strategy announcement as related to its new medium-term targets for margin, cost actions, a first look into the financial year 2020 trading environment, and the strategy that it would pursue for its land bank.
For McCarthy&Stone, the Swiss broker was anticipating £720.0m of full-year sales for £68.0m of profits on an operating basis.
"Key will be quality of the profit figure which may include some element of non-cash revaluation gain on rental assets," UBS said.
The company's guidance would also be important for markets, with UBS forecasting 2,100 units for £654.0m in sales and £62.0m of operating profits and earnings per share before one-offs of 8.6p.
UBS was also hoping for information regarding by how much trading had improved following the last elections in the UK.
Overseas meanwhile, all eyes will be on US technology giant Apple, which is due to publish its latest quarterly results after the closing bell on Wall Street.
Tuesday January 28
INTERIMS
NWF Group, PZ Cussons
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Marsh & Mclennan Cos Inc.
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Confidence (US) (15:00)
Durable Goods Orders (US) (13:30)
FINALS
Crest Nicholson Holdings, McCarthy & Stone
AGMS
Euromoney Institutional Investor, Greencore Group, Lowland Investment Co, Schroder UK Mid Cap Fund, Wey Education
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Barr (A.G.), DP Eurasia N.V. (DI) , UDG Healthcare Public Limited Company
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
CBI Distributive Trades Surveys (11:00)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Majedie Investments
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