RBA leaves rates unchanged as expected, hawkish on forward guidance
By Michele Maatouk
Date: Tuesday 30 Sep 2025
(Sharecast News) - The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged on Tuesday at 3.6%, as widely expected, as it struck a hawkish tone on forward guidance.
The RBA, which has cut rates by 75 basis points so far this year, said in a statement: "With signs that private demand is recovering, indications that inflation may be persistent in some areas and labour market conditions overall remaining stable, the board decided that it was appropriate to maintain the cash rate at its current level at this meeting.
"Financial conditions have eased since the beginning of the year and this seems to be having some impact, but it will take some time to see the full effects of earlier cash rate reductions. The board judged that it was appropriate to remain cautious, updating its view of the outlook as the data evolve."
Danske Bank said markets are now pricing in less than a 40% chance of a rate cut in November, down from around 55% before the meeting.
TD Securities said the statement opened up the possibility of no further rate cuts this year.
"The Bank highlighted stronger than expected growth and inflation, a firm housing market and the risk of persistent price pressures," it said. "The messaging was more hawkish than last week's RBA's commentary to the House of Representatives Economics Committee.
"With recent cuts seen as having an effect but the full effects yet to play out, the RBA does not appear in any pressing need to cut."
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