Chinese GDP, retail sales growth slow as investment slumps
By Benjamin Chiou
Date: Monday 20 Oct 2025
(Sharecast News) - A host of Chinese economic data came in line or ahead of forecasts on Monday - though GDP and retail sales growth both slowed to their lowest rates in a year while fixed-asset investment unexpectedly fell - as the country's central bank left its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the fifth straight month.
The year-on-year rate of Chinese GDP growth slowed as expected to 4.8% in the third quarter, down from 5.2% in the second quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This was the lowest annual increase registered since the third quarter of 2024 amid subdued domestic consumption and an ongoing slump in real estate markets.
Retail sales growth eased to a year-on-year rate of 3.0% in September, down from 3.4% the month before but ahead of the 2.9% expected by the market.
Industrial production increased 6.5% in September when compared with last year, picking up strongly from 5.2% in August and well ahead the 5.0% consensus forecast. This was the fastest rate of growth since June.
However, one major cause for concern was the news that Chinese fixed-asset investment fell by 0.5% year-on-year over the year to September, following a 0.5% increase over the year to August. This was the first drop in fixed-asset investment since 2020 and will have come as a surprise to analysts who had expected a 0.2% increase.
Meanwhile, the decline in house prices continued for the 27th straight month, falling by 2.2% year-on-year in September. However, this was up from the 2.5% drop seen the month before and the smallest decline since March 2024.
The data came as the People's Bank of China on Monday left its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) and five-year LPR at 3.0% and 3.5%, respectively. This was the fifth straight month of no change and in line with economists' expectations.
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