US nonfarm payrolls easily beat expectations
By Iain Gilbert
Date: Thursday 20 Nov 2025
(Sharecast News) - US non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, following August's revised 4,000 decline and well and truly ahead of forecasts of 50,000 for the biggest job gain in five months, but also revealed downward revisions to both July and August's prints.
The increase was driven by gains in healthcare, hospitality and social assistance, while declines were seen in transportation, warehousing and federal government roles. The September jobs report, originally due on 3 October, was delayed by the longest federal government shutdown in US history.
Also of note, the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4%, up from 4.3% for the highest level seen since October 2021.
September's payrolls report also included revisions for both July and August, pointing to weaker job growth over the summer, with July's figure lowered by 7,000 to 72,000 and August revised down by 26,000 to a decline of 4,000, according to the latest update. The combined downward revision of 33,000 reflected additional data from businesses and government agencies, as well as updated seasonal adjustments, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
The BLS added that the October employment report had been cancelled entirely, as household survey data could not be collected during the reference period due to a lapse in appropriations.
Rostro's Joshua Mahony said: "Today's jobs report brought a little for everyone, with the initial optimism around the 119k beat soon cooling once taking other elements into account. Firstly, the good news. This figure stands well above the circa 50k expected by the markets, with particular strength in leisure & hospitality. We also saw construction job growth back in positive territory, gaining the most in any month since February. However, the downward revision to the August figure (-4k from 22k) should serve as a timely reminder of the potential fate for today's welcome headline figure. We have seen the past eight initial NFP figures revised lower, with a particular nod to the May and June readings that saw 139k and 147k figures slashed to 19k and -13k respectively. With concerns about a potential downward revision to today's figure, the rise in unemployment will remind many that concerns remain over the direction of travel. Nonetheless, an unemployment rate of 4.4% remains well below many of their Western peers, with the Canadians (7%) and eurozone (6.3%) in a very different position. Meanwhile, with the participation rate on the rise, this looks to be more a case of an uplift in the number of people seeking to re-enter the job market. The decline in the U6 total unemployment rate (8% from 8.1%) signals as much.
"As such, the positives of the report are not as good as they seem, but the inverse can be said about the negatives. From a market perspective, we have seen a somewhat mixed response, with dollar losses and gold gains soon losing traction. This report is unlikely to massively shift the needle for the December Fed meeting which looks like a pause according to the latest minutes and lack of October data. Nonetheless, as we draw a line under earnings season, the profit-taking seen in momentum trades such as US stocks and gold could ease to bring some optimism in time for Christmas."
Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com
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