UK private sector growth eases in run-up to Budget
By Michele Maatouk
Date: Friday 21 Nov 2025
(Sharecast News) - UK private sector growth eased in November as decisions were put on hold in the run-up to the Budget, according to a survey released on Friday.
The S&P Global flash UK PMI composite output index fell to 50.5 from 52.2 in October, coming in below expectations for a reading of 51.8.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below signals contraction.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: "November's flash PMI surveys brought disappointing news on the UK economy. Economic growth has stalled, job losses have accelerated, and business confidence has deteriorated.
"The PMI is broadly consistent with no change in GDP in November and a meagre 0.1% quarterly pace of growth so far in the fourth quarter.
"Some of this malaise has been blamed on paused spending decisions ahead of the Autumn Budget, but there's a real chance this pause may turn into a downturn. The drop in confidence about the year ahead reflects growing concerns that business conditions will remain tough in the coming months, largely linked to speculation that further demand-dampening measures will be introduced in the Budget."
Jake Finney, senior economist at PwC, said the latest UK PMI data shows the economy is "running low on steam" after its strong start to the year, pointing to a second consecutive weak quarter in a repeat of the pattern seen last year.
Finney continued: "Heightened Budget-related uncertainty has impacted the short-term outlook. Businesses and households are clearly taking a wait-and-see approach as they look for more clarity. In recent weeks, economic policy uncertainty has risen to its highest level since 'Liberation Day' in April. At the same time, the UK's household saving ratio remains elevated compared with many G7 peers, underlining the reluctance of consumers to dip into their wallets. The key question for the Chancellor in this upcoming Budget is how she can repair the public finances without knocking confidence further.
"The good news is that the latest release adds to a run of encouraging data on inflation, with output prices rising at their slowest rate in nearly five years. This should marginally raise the chance of a rate cut in February, or even before the end of the year if next month's data is supportive."
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