Retail sales fall in lead-up to Budget - CBI
By Abigail Townsend
Date: Tuesday 25 Nov 2025
(Sharecast News) - Retail sales continued to disappoint in November, an industry survey showed on Tuesday, as nervous consumers held back on spending ahead of the Budget.
According to the latest distributive trades survey from the Confederation of British Industry, retail sales volumes fell in the year to November, with the weighted balance down five points at -32.
A balance is the difference between the percentage of firms reporting an increase and those reporting a decrease.
Respondents said that by seasonal standards, November's retail sales had been judged to be poor, with a balance of -25.
Sales was forecast to improve in December, although at -18 the forward-looking balance remained firmly in negative territory.
Sentiment among retailers also declined sharply, tumbling to -35 from -10 a month earlier.
The CBI said it was the steepest fall for 17 years.
The last three months of the year - the so-called golden quarter - is a critical time for retailers, as shoppers splash out on Black Friday deals, Christmas gifts and festive food and drink. However, the high street is facing a number of headwinds this year.
As well as persistently sticky inflation and historically high interest rates, Thursday's Budget is considerably later than normal, and mounting speculation in its lead-up has weighed heavily on already weak consumer sentiment.
Retailers have also seen a spike in costs this year, including a new packaging levy and increases to employers' National Insurance contributions.
Alpesh Paleja, CBI deputy chief economist, said: "Retailers continue to grapple with a long spell of weak demand, as households remain cautious around day-to-day spending.
"With all eyes on the Budget, uncertainty in the run-up has meant businesses are holding back on plans for investment and hiring.
"The chancellor must avoid pulling the business tax lever once again, at risk of further curtailing firms' efforts to build a more resilient, dynamic economy."
The survey was based on 177 respondents, of which 66 were retailers and 95 wholesalers, with data collected between 28 October and 13 November.
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