Confi dence in future earnings, and hence the stock market, has fallen very sharply over the year. While valuations look very attractive on current earnings these earnings are substantially above the long run trend. Valuation measures using average earnings over the last ten years now indicate for the fi rst time that UK valuations are nearing twenty year lows. This is positive.The re-capitalisation of the UK banking system should at least prevent a collapse in the economy, even if a recession is now certain. It is worth noting that for the fi rst time in almost two years 'value' as a style of investing has started to do better than 'growth' investing.