LONDON (ShareCast) - (Sharecast News) - Berenberg upgraded BP on Thursday to 'buy' from 'hold' and hiked the price target to 500p from 385p following "significantly stronger" results through Q2 2025 combined with the recent positive exploration news flow.
The bank said the key driver of the improved outlook is a stronger free cash flow outlook, helped by lower capex, progress on the cost-cutting programme and recovery in the downstream business.

"At the same time, exploration success, particularly the potential at the Bumerangue field in Brazil, may offer investors comfort on the medium- to longer-term outlook for the upstream business," Berenberg said.

It noted that BP's new chairman is kicking off his appointment with further reviews on both costs and the broader portfolio, pointing to an ongoing focus on shareholder returns.

"The $20bn divestment plan should enable both lower net debt and the continuation of attractive buybacks in 2026, leaving a 10% total cash shareholder return (a 6.2% dividend yield)," it said.

Berenberg increased its earnings per share estimates 11%/8% for 2025/26 respectively, driven by higher gas and refining assumptions.

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