Given the binary outcome of a falling oil price and therefore a relief rally in equities, some investors might have expected markets to have climbed even further in August. However, the massive exercise in the de-leveraging of fi nancial assets that is underway across the globe and the falling velocity of money have helped keep the rally in check. Money supply in the US, Europe and the UK is declining sharply and fi nancial stocks remain in a very fragile state.As a result, we believe that markets will find little justifi cation to move substantially higher until the US housing market finds a bottom and there is more clarity as to the extent that the global economy has slowed down. The Jupiter Merlin Portfolios are extremely well positioned to take advantage of any opportunities as they arise but in the meantime are retaining a relatively cautious profile.