Another rollercoaster month on the UK equity market saw extreme volatility caused by very low volumes during the main holiday period. As in previous months, the market was driven by events in the wider economy rather than at the stock level. The main driver for equities in August was the dramatic change in the fortune of the US dollar. Data showing that the US economy was perhaps bottoming, coincided with evidence that weak growth in UK and Europe could lead to interest rate cuts.This sudden reversal boosted sectors such as Pharmaceuticals and Aerospace. The portfolio lagged the market in August, suffering from an overweight in Oil E&P and Oil Services. The turn in the US dollar exacerbated the fall in commodity prices, already weakening from the slowdown in the global economy. While expecting some underperformance, the extent and speed of the fall has surprised.The best performance came from Lonmin which received a bid from Xstrata, while other useful contributions came from First Group and Shire Pharmaceuticals. Four new holdings were added - HBOS, Smith & Nephew, Whitbread, and First Group.
The outlook continues to be uncertain. Investors seem split on which road to take - some are favouring interest rate sensitive sectors, betting on a peak in inflation allowing interest rates to be cut soon, while others remain defensively positioned, convinced that any recovery is a long way off. I suspect that the best way forward is to have a foot in both camps.