Private sector activity set to fall again, says CBI
By Benjamin Chiou
Date: Monday 22 Dec 2025
(Sharecast News) - Private sector firms expect business activity to weaken again over the coming three months, according to the Confederation of British Industry's latest Growth Indicator on Monday.
The growth indicator's weighted balance - the percentage of firms expecting an increase minus those expecting a decline - came in at -30% in December, extending a run of negative predictions that started in late-2024.
The balance for business volumes in the services sector came in at -29%, driven by weak readings in business and professional services (-24%) and consumer services (-46%).
Distribution sales expectations fell to their lowest level since June 2020 at -47%, while manufacturers were predicting a modest fall in activity at -17%, which was slightly less negative than the previous month.
The gloomy outlook came as the downturn in private sector activity over the three months to December was relatively unchanged at -34%, compared with -35% for the three months to November, with all sectors reporting declines.
"Our latest surveys round off a disappointing year for private sector growth. They mark a continuation of the headwinds that have plagued businesses over the past 12 months: tepid demand conditions, with households cautious around spending; and strong cost pressures squeezing margins," said CBI deputy economist Alpesh Paella.
"Uncertainty ahead of November's Budget also put the brakes on key spending decisions and big projects, choking up pipelines of work. The latest Growth Indicator suggests that the alleviation of this uncertainty hasn't materially boosted activity."
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