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French presidential election TV debate - Analysts react

By Alexander Bueso

Date: Thursday 04 May 2017

French presidential election TV debate - Analysts react

(ShareCast News) - "With Macron already holding a considerable lead in the polls, the TV debate was Le Pen's best opportunity to close the gap ahead of voting on Sunday. While Le Pen was widely seen as being better suited to the event, it is Macron that is believed to have fared better in the scathing encounter, helping to protect his substantial lead in the process and ease concerns about a late surge by the National Front leader. While we have seen Le Pen risk abate in recent weeks as her lead in the polls slipped and Macron took the first round, the spread between French and German 10-year yields remains at the top end of the range it traded at prior to the election premium being priced in. If this is also being reflected elsewhere then there may be potential for a small relief rally next week, should Macron win as expected." - Craig Erlam, senior market analyst Oanda
"The great unknown remains how many of [Francois Fillon's and Jean Luc Melenchon's followers] will abstain in the second round due to dissatisfaction with the candidate choice available to them in the run-off. For now, Le Pen's chances of winning look increasingly slim, and she can only hope for a large abstention rate on Sunday to swing the vote in her favour. Following the run-off, focus will turn quickly to the parliamentary elections in June, which will determine the legislative support of the new President." - Danske Bank

"As expected there were the usual fiery exchanges but nothing that really moved the dial. Instead the general feeling was that Macron solidified his position and lead. Le Pen was questioned intensely about her plans for a dual-currency regime for the franc and euro while the FT also summarised that Macron focused routinely on the contradictions and inaccuracies in Le Pen's plan to exit the EU. Le Pen on the other hand spent a great deal of time portraying Macron as an elitist. The Euro traded in a tight range through much of the debate and finished up little changed compared to where it was when the debate started." - Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank

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