German consumer prices rise by less than expected in January
By Alexander Bueso
Date: Thursday 09 Feb 2023
(Sharecast News) - The cost of living in Germany rose by less than expected by economists at the start of 2023.
According to preliminary estimates from the Federal Office of Statistics, in annual terms the rate of increase in the country's Consumer Price Index edged up by one tenth of a percentage point from 8.6% for December to 8.7% in January (consensus: 8.9%).
In harmonised terms, which allows for easier comparison with other euro area economies, CPI was ahead by 9.2% on the year, against a 9.6% gain during the previous month (consensus: 10.1%).
The national CPI was up by 1.0% month-on-month and harmonised CPI 0.5% higher.
Commenting on the latest figures, Claus Vistesen, chief Eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the month-on-month increases in CPI "look small to us in light of what was likely a significant upward adjustment in many utility prices, ex-government intervention, in response to the surge in gas prices in the second half of 2022.
"This, in turn, suggests that the price cap did its work, but it is difficult to tell until we see some details."
Destatis does not offer a breakdown of CPI components when there is a base change, he noted.
Vistesen also noted that the consensus estimates for CPI were "not worth much" as technical problems had kept Germany from compiling an estimate for the preliminary euro area CPI release.
He estimated that Eurostat, the European Union's statistical office, had probably penciled in a rise of 8.6-8.7% year-on-year.
That meant that Thursday's harmonised CPI print was only a "slight" upside surprise.
Vistesen had anticipated a higher outcome and was now estimating a 0.1-0.2 percentage point upwards revision "at most" to Eurostat's estimate of euro area inflation for the month.
The base year for calculating CPI was changed from 2015 to 2020 with Thursday's release.
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