Bolton tips 100-day share rally to continue
The UK's most famous investor Anthony Bolton has forecast that shares will continue to rise after the FTSE 100 bottomed out 100 days ago
Better times to come? Anthony Bolton, Fidelity International
Today marks the 100th day since the FTSE 100 index of the UK's top firms bottomed on 3 March and the UK's most famous, and arguably most successful investor, Fidelity's Anthony Bolton, is expecting the rally to continue.
Since its days in the doldrums, the Footsie has surged ahead by 28% and the FTSE All-Share by some 29%.
Over the 100 days, 54 stocks have witnessed their price recover by more than 100%.
According to research from Fidelity, car rental firm, Avis Europe, enjoyed a 430% surge in the value of its share price, making it the strongest riser.
Bolton, who has already called the bottom, remains in a confident mood and anticipates more good news could be on its way.
He says: 'I think the economic data will continue to improve over the next few months and this could prove the backcloth for a further significant rise before the market consolidates.'
Bolton has a long reputation of making the right market calls and picking winning stocks.
Between 1979 and the end of 2007, while he was running the Fidelity Special Situations fund, he would have turned a £1,000 lump sum investment into £147,000.
He says: 'In March this year, many of the things I look for that mark a bear market low were in place, including a long enough and deep enough decline, cheap valuations relative to history and sentiment which was as negative as I've seen it in my career.'
But despite Bolton's anticipation of more good news to come, another investing guru, Neil Woodford, manager of the hugely successful and popular Invesco Perpetual Income and High Income funds believes that the stock market is getting ahead of itself and that a real recovery is far from being on the horizon.
Woodford says: 'The start of a period of sustained expansion in the economy is a hell of a long way away. I believe three or four years away.'
The 100 day rally's winners and losers
The rally since the March low has been chiefly driven by one of the smaller sectors, industrial metals, which is up by a massive 116%. The automobiles and parts sector has mirrored the surge in demand for industrial metals while the life insurance sector and banks are up 97% and 89% respectively.
Other sectors that have led the way during the 100 day rally include miners, up 60%, general financials, 53% better, and real estate, ahead by 48%.
As for individual stocks, FTSE 250 listed firms, like Avis, enjoyed the biggest bounces. Punch Taverns has risen by a spectacular 318%, Topps Tiles by 277%, Johnston Press is up 275%, while Trinity Mirror has posted 256% growth.
The best performing stock, within the FTSE 100, since the early March low, has been Barclays, pushing ahead by 247%, while miner Vedanta Resources achieved 217%, other top flight firms achieving remarkable gains include Xstrata and Fresnillo.
Bolton says: 'For some time I have felt that financials, which was the sector that led us in to the bear market, would also be one of the sectors that led the recovery.
'I think that this bull market could be quite front-end loaded with some of the biggest gains being made early on. Although markets have risen significantly in the last three months triggered by valuations, I believe many investors have missed this recovery and cash positions remain well above average.'
Of course it has not been an uphill ride for everyone, the mobile telecoms sector has dropped by 1%, the traditionally defensive arenas of tobacco and utilities are, respectively, flat and up 1% while household goods have managed to climb just 12%.
Among the worst performing stocks are Dawson Holdings, the supplier of books and publications to the professional academic, corporate and public library markets, which has endured a share price collapse of 83%, while miner Central Rand Gold is off by 38% and information technology firm Emblaze has lost 28%.
All data to June 9
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