King sends rates warning to borrowers
Interest rates are going up. We don't know when: it might be as soon as May, it might not be until next year, if you give credence to the more dovish economists.
But the rock-bottom rate of 0.5% we have had for almost two years will not persist indefinitely, as Bank of England governor Mervyn King pointed out.
With inflation at 4% - double its target rate - and predicted by the Bank to rise to 5% this year, the pressure is on.
But there are two key questions: whether higher interest rates would actually tame inflation, and whether the economy can withstand the pain. It is not obvious that the answer to either is 'yes'.
Persistently high inflation in the UK is a bit of an oddity in the sense that it has not beset other leading economies in the same way.
Once elements such as taxes and commodity prices are stripped out, however, our figure is not so far out of kilter. A hike in British interest rates would not have much impact on external factors such as the global energy market.
The 25% fall in the pound in 2007/8, which has driven up the price of imports, is another contributor, though this has been instrumental in helping rebalance the economy in favour of manufacturing and boosting exports.
Hiking rates prematurely could nip an export-led recovery in the bud.
It's important to be aware of what is driving inflation, but even more important to take note of what is not, namely pay.
Historically, the big fear about inflation is that it will fuel higher wage demands, sparking a vicious upward spiral, but there is no evidence this is happening this time.
Bankers aside, most of us are taking pay cuts in real terms, and seeing a fall in our standard of living. With jobless figures yesterday coming in higher than expected, most employees are taking it on the chin, rather than agitating for more.
King warned that growth is likely to be slower than expected this year and we have yet to feel the force of the austerity cuts.
Of course it is desirable to have interest rates at more normal levels, not least for the sake of suffering savers, who outnumber mortgage borrowers by six to one - but given that the economy is nowhere near back to normal there are strong arguments against starting the process soon.
Obviously, that doesn't mean it won't happen: more hawks could flock to the side of MPC members Andrew Sentance and Martin Weale, who have already voted for an increase.
The prudent thing is to remember that a normal rate, of say, 5%, is ten times higher than where we are now, and to make any long term financial plans with that in mind.
Banking on low rates continuing is to live in a fool's paradise.
Super Marius
It is understandable that BHP Billiton chief executive Marius Kloppers is gun-shy of attempting another big acquisition after failing to take over Rio Tinto and then having to abandon a bid for Potash Corp of Canada.
In any case, prices of potential targets are high, and it is hard to think of a deal big enough to make a material difference to the world's biggest mining company.
So Kloppers, who has reported record half-year profits thanks to rising commodity prices, is to buy back £6.25bn of shares from investors and to spend a cool £50bn on developing projects in Australia, Chile and Canada.
The sheer scale of this planned expenditure is awesome, and investors might fret that BHP will struggle to use the money efficiently. But it's hard to imagine that the ambitious Kloppers will not re-enter the deal fray at some point.
And in the scheme of things, having more money than you might know what to do with is not the worst problem a chief executive can have.
Curse returns
Can anyone escape the curse of the CBI? Bad fortune has dogged Sir Clive Thompson, formerly a highly successful boss at Rentokil, ever since he took the presidency of the bosses' organisation.
First Rentokil's shares sank, then he ran into bother over his chairmanship of failed Christmas savings club Farepak, an involvement that now leaves him facing possible disqualification as a director.
Lord Marshall of BA and Sir Iain Vallance of BT saw shares in their companies suffer when they took the reins at the lobby group.
Let's hope Centrica chairman Sir Roger Carr, who takes the CBI presidency this summer, has been stocking up on lucky charms.
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