US non-farm payrolls exceed forecasts for October
By Alexander Bueso
Date: Friday 04 Nov 2022
(Sharecast News) - Non-farm payrolls in the US continued to grow more quickly than expected last month, although some market commentary were highlighting a decline in a measure of employment derived from another survey but contained in the same report.
According to the Department of Labor, in seasonally adjusted terms non-farm payrolls increased by 261,000 during the month of October.
Economists had penciled-in a rise nearer 200,000.
October's increase compared to revised increases of 292,000 and 315,000 in August and September, for a combined upwards revision for those months of 31,000.
Average hourly earnings increased at a month-on-month pace of 0.4% (consensus: 0.3%).
The rate of unemployment however rose by two tenths of a percentage points to 3.7% (consensus: 3.5%).
Labour force participation ticked down by one tenth of a percentage point versus the month before to reach 62.2.
Nonetheless, what caught some observers' attention the most was a 328,000 drop in the Household measure of employment contained within the same report which contributes to the unemployment rate estimate.
Within non-farm payrolls, private sector hiring was up by 233,000, against 233,000 in August and 319,000 for September.
"The bottom line here is that the labor market is softening, but has not yet reached the point where the data are screaming at the Fed to stop tightening," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
"But if these trends continue, as we expect, markets will start to push the Fed - and especially Chair Powell - to rethink the idea of continued hikes next year."
Nonetheless, Shepherdson was cautious as regarded the various data points, including the Household measure of employment, saying that was not "statistically significant".
On the rate of wage growth, he believed there was a clear "step down" in the charts, but added that he was cautious as the data tended to be "noisy and unreliable", so he needed a couple more months of data to be convinced.
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