UK retail sales slump in November - CBI
By Michele Maatouk
Date: Monday 28 Nov 2022
(Sharecast News) - UK retail sales slumped in November as consumers tightened their belts amid the cost-of-living crisis, according to the latest Distributive Trades Survey from the Confederation of British Industry.
The CBI's reported sales balance declined to -19 from +18 in October, coming in well below consensus expectations of +2.
A balance is the weighted difference between the percentage of retailers reporting an increase and those reporting a decrease.
Martin Sartorius, principal economist at the CBI, said: "It's not surprising that retailers are feeling the chill as the UK continues to be buffeted by economic headwinds. Sales volumes fell at a firm pace in the year to November, and retailers remain notably downbeat about their future business prospects. This pessimism is reflected in investment intentions worsening to the greatest extent since May 2020.
"Retailers and wholesalers contribute £352bn to the UK economy and support a fifth of the nation's jobs - yet these survey results underline what a tough time it is for the sector. The Chancellor's decision to back CBI calls for a freeze in businesses rates next April will provide some welcome relief, but retailers are also looking for longer-term measures from Government that can restore momentum to the UK economy. Businesses stand ready to work with Government to implement a serious plan for growth that can lift us all out of the current crisis."
Gabriella Dickens, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the survey suggests that the partial recovery in retail sales volumes last month was a false dawn.
"The 37-point drop in the reported sales balance pushed it back below its average since January 1984, -0.6, while the sales-for-the-time-of-year balance - which has had a better relationship with the official figures in the past - also fell back to +3, from +20 in October," she noted.
"Consumers, therefore, appear to have tightened their belts in the face of surging CPI inflation and higher interest rates in November, despite the boost to households' disposable incomes from the second cost-of-living payment to recipients of working-age benefits and the reversal of April's National Insurance increase at the start of the month."
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