UK retail sales nudge higher - CBI
By Abigail Townsend
Date: Wednesday 26 Apr 2023
(Sharecast News) - UK retail sales edged higher in April, a survey showed on Wednesday, although retailers remained cautious.
According to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey, sales volumes in the year to April edged higher, with the weighted balance rising to +5 from +1 in March. Sales were also seen as good for the time of year, with a balance of +21, up from +12.
However, a number of respondents expected sales volumes to fall next month, with a balance of -7.
Gabriella Dickens, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "An uptick in sales in April [was] perhaps enabled by the 10.1% increase in the value of benefits, including the state pension, at the start of the month.
"The boost however, will prove temporary, given that the real value will decline again over the coming months as prices continue to rise. In addition, both business surveys and the Insolvency Service's data on redundancy notifications suggest employment will merely flatline over the coming months.
"In the round, we think households' real disposable incomes will hold broadly stable in the second quarter, before a recovery takes hold in the third, supported by a drop back in energy prices.
"We think that the volume of retail sales will end the year up just 1% year-over-year."
Internet sales also improved, for the first time since October 2021, with online volumes jumping from a balance of -26 in March to +28 and growth forecast to continue at broadly similar levels next month.
The survey of 166 firms, 72 of which were retailers, which was carried out between 27 March and 13 April. A balance is the weighted percentage of firms reporting an increase minus those reporting a decrease.
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