January's budget surplus biggest on record but misses forecasts
By Michele Maatouk
Date: Friday 21 Feb 2025
(Sharecast News) - January's monthly budget surplus was the biggest on record but missed expectations, according to figures released on Friday by the Office for National Statistics.
Public finances recorded a £15.4bn surplus in January, up £800m on the previous year. This marked the highest figure for January since monthly records began in 1993.
Nevertheless, the figure was below the £20.5bn forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility and consensus forecasts of £18.8bn.
The ONS said combined self-assessed income and capital gains tax receipts were provisionally estimated at £36.2bn in January, up £3.8bn on the year and the highest January receipts since monthly records began in 1999.
Alex Kerr, UK economist at Capital Economics, said: "While January's disappointing public finances figures may not be as bad as they first appear, they continue the run of bad news for the Chancellor in 2025 and underline the difficult choices she faces.
"While there is increasing pressure on the government to commit to higher defence spending, the OBR is likely to conclude that the Chancellor's headroom against her fiscal rules has been wiped out and she will probably need to tighten fiscal policy as a result."
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