Ryanair Q1 profit falls, misses expectations
By Michele Maatouk
Date: Monday 20 Jul 2026
(Sharecast News) - Ryanair posted a 34% drop in first-quarter profit after tax on Monday, missing analysts' expectations, as fuel prices jumped and fares fell due to the conflict in the Middle East and the timing of Easter.
Profit after tax declined to €538m from €820m in the same period a year earlier, as revenue nudged up 1% to €4.38bn. Analysts were expecting PAT of €579m.
Fares fell 6% during the quarter. Ryanair said that fares - which benefitted from a full Easter in April 2025 - "required stimulation as the Middle East conflict led to consumer hesitancy, concerns about EU jet-fuel shortages, economic uncertainty and later bookings".
Meanwhile, operating costs rose 11% to €3.81bn as the price of the company's 20% unhedged jet-fuel more than doubled.
Passenger numbers increased 6% to 61.3 million and the load factor, which gauges how full the planes are, was steady at 94%.
The airline said it has zero second-half visibility so it remains "far too early" to provide any meaningful guidance on FY27 profit after tax.
Chief executive Michael O'Leary said: "The final FY27 PAT remains highly sensitive to adverse external developments, incl. conflict escalation in the Middle East and Ukraine, the price of unhedged jet-fuel, macro-economic shocks and continuing European ATC strikes & mismanagement."
At 1425 BST, the shares were down 4.6% at €24.76.
Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: "The latest update from Ryanair provided insight into airline sector stress thanks to the turbulence created by the Iran conflict.
"Even for those carriers whose routes are not directly impacted, the increase in fuel prices, the pressures on consumer confidence, and the diminished appetite for overseas travel are all major headwinds to navigate. Visibility is worse than San Francisco airport when the fog sets in, and in that context it's not a surprise to see Ryanair opt against giving full-year guidance.
"Ryanair is better placed than many of its rivals. A good chunk of its fuel supply is hedged at much lower levels than the prevailing oil price and it has a robust balance sheet.
"That may boost its competitive position in the medium term if peers on shakier foundations start to crumble and capacity comes out of the market. EasyJet succumbing to a bid from private equity might also be helpful if it results in a more conservative approach on its part.
"However, the rapid increase in costs for the unhedged portion of Ryanair's fuel supply and downward pressure on fares is impacting margins. Management admits their fare income is at the mercy of booking activity in August and September.
"The renewed escalation in hostilities in the Middle East is unhelpful and without a lasting resolution, challenging times for the airline and travel space look set to continue."
Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, said: "Ryanair's results show just how quickly nervousness surrounding the war has seeped into booking patterns and operational costs. Its profit has slumped by a third due to higher fuel costs and the reticence of passengers to book holidays as war rages in the Middle East and cost-of-living pressures mount across Europe. It's a sign that consumers are once again tightening their belts and delaying discretionary spending, leaving airlines exposed not just to soaring jet fuel costs but also the prospect of softer demand.
"If the conflict drags on through the peak summer season, pressure on earnings across the travel sector looks set to intensify."
See latest RNS on Investegate
Email this article to a friend
or share it with one of these popular networks:
You are here: news
10 Lower Thames St,
London EC3R 6EN