Friday preview: US non-farm payrolls, Berkeley Group Holdings in focus
By Alexander Bueso
Date: Thursday 05 Sep 2024
(Sharecast News) - All eyes at the end of the week will be on the US non-farm payrolls report for August, which may decide whether the Federal Reserve opts for a 25 or 50 basis point cut when its meets in two weeks' time.
Consensus is for a moderate improvement in the pace of hiring in comparison to the previous month.
Economists are anticipating 160,000 job gains after the 114,000 increase initially reported for July.
In parallel, the rate of unemployment is seen ticking down to 4.2% and growth in average hourly earnings picking up to 0.3% month-on-month.
Worth noting, in a research note sent to clients, Oxford Economics said that the Fed could not be complacent as up until now people laid off in a given sector had been quickly reabsorbed by rival companies.
But should that change then a sudden rise in unemployment was possible which could snowball.
Nonetheless, Oxford Economics believed that Friday's payrolls number would print at 170,000 such that the Fed would cut by 25bp.
A larger reduction would necessitate a "significantly weaker" August jobs report, they added.
The consultancy was anticipating two 25bp Fed rate cuts before the end of 2024, against Fed funds futures currently on three cuts.
On the company side of things, luxury homebuilder Berkeley Group will provide investors with a trading update.
In particular, investors will want to hear from the builder about the outlook and the operating environment in the first four months of its 2025 fiscal year, said Gregor Kuglitsch at UBS.
The analyst thought that there might have been some improvement over the summer.
At the time of its full-year results, on 19 June, management had guided towards profit before tax of £525m and reiterated its forecast for profit of to £450m in FY26.
Kuglitsch was anticipating profit of £500m in FY26.
For FY25, completions excluding joint ventures were seen at 4,050, versus 3,521 one year before.
Friday 06 September
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Avon Technologies , Chemring Group, Inchcape, Maven Income & Growth 3 VCT, Maven Income and Growth VCT 5, Nichols
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Chenavari Toro Income Fund Limited NPV, Unilever
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (GER) (07:00)
Gross Domestic Product (EU) (10:00)
Industrial Production (GER) (07:00)
Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)
Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Nichols
AGMS
Berkeley Group Holdings (The), Halfords Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Halifax House Price Index (07:00)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Investec
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