Global oil supply to 'comfortably' meet demand in 2025 - IEA
By Abigail Townsend
Date: Thursday 12 Dec 2024
(Sharecast News) - Global oil supply is likely to "comfortably" meet demand next year, a leading energy body predicted on Thursday, even after Opec voted to delay planned output increases.
Publishing its December oil market report, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said world oil demand growth was set to accelerate to 1.1m barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, from 840,000 bpd in 2024, lifting consumption to 103.9m bpd.
That is an increase on the IEA's previous forecast, made in October, for 990,000 bpd.
"While non-OECD demand growth, notably in China, has slowed markedly, emerging Asia will continue to lead gains in 2024 and 2025," it noted.
Oil supply, meanwhile, rose by 130,000 bpd month-on-month in November, or by 230,000 bpd year-on-year, to 103.4m bpd. IEA said supply was on track to reach 104.8m bpd in 2025 "even in the absence of unwinding of OPEC+ cuts".
Earlier this month, the oil cartel and its allies, which includes Russia, delayed plans to start raising output again until April 2025, against a backdrop of weaker demand and falling prices.
It also extended the full unwinding of cuts by one year, until the end of 2026.
The IEA said the move had "materially reduced the potential oversupply overhang that was set to emerge next year.
"Even so, persistent overproduction from some Opec+ members, robust supply growth from non-Opec+ countries and relatively modest global oil demand growth leaves he market looking comfortably supplied in 2025."
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