UK retail sales rise less than expected in November
By Michele Maatouk
Date: Friday 20 Dec 2024
(Sharecast News) - UK retail sales missed expectations in November, but borrowing figures came in better than expected, according to data released on Friday by the Office for National Statistics.
Retail sales ticked up 0.2%. This was an improvement on the 0.7% decline seen in October, but was below analysts' expectations of a 0.5% jump.
The ONS said growth in supermarkets and other non-food stores was partly offset by a fall in clothing retailers.
Hannah Finselbach, senior statistician at the ONS, said: "Retail sales increased slightly in November following last month's fall.
"For the first time in three months there was a boost for food store sales, particularly supermarkets. It was also a good month for household goods retailers, most notably furniture shops.
"Clothing store sales dipped sharply once again, as retailers reported tough trading conditions.
"With November's retail sales survey covering the four weeks to the 23 November, Black Friday itself will fall within December's figures. However, our figures account for this shift in timing to give us the best picture of what is happening in the shops."
Alex Kerr, UK economist at Capital Economics, said: "Overall, against a backdrop of recent weak activity data, today's release could have been worse. However, November's rise fails to fully reverse October's fall and sales volumes would need to rise by 1.1% m/m in December to prevent a contraction in Q4 overall.
"The risk of a contraction in overall GDP in Q4 remains (our forecast is 0.0% q/q). That said, as real incomes continue to grow and consumer confidence improves next year, we think the retail sector will contribute to an acceleration in consumer spending growth from around 0.7% in 2024 to 1.6% in 2025."
Separate figures released by the ONS showed that UK borrowing was £11.2bn in November, comfortably below the consensus forecast of £13bn, and £3.4bn lower than in November 2023. It was also the lowest November borrowing figure in three years.
Jessica Barnaby, deputy director for public sector finance at the ONS, said: "Borrowing this month was over £3bn less than this time last year and the lowest November borrowing for three years.
"Central government tax receipts grew compared with last year, while increased spending on public services and on benefits were offset by lower debt interest payable."
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