Week ahead: Trump, US trade tariffs, Non-farm payrolls in focus
By Alexander Bueso
Date: Friday 28 Mar 2025
(Sharecast News) - Investors may get caught on the hop if they focus on the 2 April announcement of trade tariffs by the US administration, Bank of America says.
For starters, BofA strategist Michael Hartnett believed that President Donald Trump will underplay his hand, not overplay.
Why? In order to avoid a second wave of inflation in the US, Hartnett said.
But in any case, where investors should be looking is the 4 April US non-farm payrolls figures for the month of March.
A reading of between 100-200,000 would be consistent with a soft landing, meaning that the recent low of 5,500 on the S&P 500 would hold.
Readings below 100,000 on the other hand would mean a new low in April, although that, in turn, might see Trump pivot towards tax cuts, he believed.
Also on Tuesday, 4 April, consultancy Caixin will release its Chinese factory sector PMI for the month of March.
In parallel, the Bank of Japan will publish its own Tankan quarterly survey on business confidence.
Similar survey readings on manufacturing out of the euro area, UK and US will follow later that same session.
Services PMI surveys for all those same regions are due out on Thursday.
Preliminary euro area CPI figures on Tuesday may also make for an interesting read.
So too German factory orders figures on Friday.
Monday 31 March
INTERIMS
James Halstead, SSP Group , YouGov
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Ashmore Group, Gateley (Holdings) , Mountview Estates
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Diversified Energy Company , Energean , HICL Infrastructure , NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited Red, Tetragon Financial Group Limited, The Renewables Infrastructure Group Limited
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Chicago PMI (US) (14:45)
Consumer Price Index (GER) (13:00)
Import Price Index (GER) (07:00)
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)
GMS
Agriterra LD, Montanaro UK Smaller Companies Inv Trust, Zenova Group
FINALS
Alfa Financial Software Holdings , Inspired, Itaconix , RTW Biotech Opportunities Ltd , The Artisanal Spirits Company
ANNUAL REPORT
SThree
EGMS
HUTCHMED (China) Limited
AGMS
Britvic, Capai, IDOX, Lexington Gold Ltd (DI), MediaZest, Pri0r1ty Intelligence Group, River Global A
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Credit (09:30)
M4 Money Supply (09:30)
Mortgage Approvals (08:30)
Nationwide House Price Index (07:00)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aviva 8 3/8% Cumulative Irrd Preference 1, Henry Boot Prf, Imperial Brands , Northern Electricity Prf, S and U 6% Cumulative Prf. £1
Tuesday 01 April
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.NPV (CDI)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Construction Spending (US) (15:00)
Consumer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)
PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)
PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)
PMI Manufacturing (US) (14:45)
GMS
Hornby
FINALS
Corero Network Security, Niox Group, Pantheon Infrastructure , Pantheon Infrastructure , Pinewood Technologies Group , Travis Perkins
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BRC Shop Price Index (00:01)
PMI Manufacturing (09:30)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (10:00)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Bristol Water 'A' 8 3/4% Cum Irrd Prf, General Accident (Prf), Morgan Advance Materials 5% Cumulative 2nd Preference 1, Morgan Advance Materials 5.5% Cumulative 1st preference 1, Stand.Ch.7te%pr, Standard Chartered 8 1/4% Non-Cum Irrd Pref
Wednesday 02 April
INTERIMS
Gattaca
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Factory Orders (US) (15:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
FINALS
Argentex Group , Big Technologies, Distribution Finance Capital Holdings, Norman Broadbent , Raspberry PI Holdings
ANNUAL REPORT
Quilter
AGMS
Brunner Inv Trust
Thursday 03 April
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
City of London Investment Group, South32 Limited (DI)
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Barratt Redrow, Chemring 7% Cumulative Preference Shares 1, Heavitree Brewery 11 1/2% Cum Prf , Latham (James) 8% Cumulative Preference 1, New Star Investment Trust, Smiths Group, The European Smaller Companies Trust, VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Ltd.
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
CT UK High Income Trust, CT UK High Income Trust B , Real Estate Investors
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
ISM Services (US) (15:00)
PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)
PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)
PMI Composite (US) (14:45)
PMI Services (US) (09:30)
FINALS
VH Global Energy Infrastructure
AGMS
Banco Santander S.A., Rio Tinto
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Moonpig Group
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Composite (09:30)
PMI Services (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Apax Global Alpha Limited
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Breedon Group , Chesnara, Dalata Hotel Group (CDI), Direct Line Insurance Group, Domino's Pizza Group, Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd Com Shs (DI), IDOX, IMI, InterContinental Hotels Group, Mondi, Murray International Trust, Personal Group Holdings, Phoenix Group Holdings , Quartix Technologies, Rentokil Initial, Smithson Investment Trust
Friday 04 April
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Fiske, Fonix , Genus, MJ Gleeson , Pennon Group, Ruffer Investment Company Ltd Red PTG Pref Shares, Sylvania Platinum Ltd (DI), Wilmington
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Real Estate Credit Investments Ltd, Regional REIT Limited NPV, RM Infrastructure Income
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Factory Orders (GER) (07:00)
Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)
Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Construction (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Barclays, Brunner Inv Trust, NCC Group, Rights & Issues Investment Trust
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