America pushes trade tariffs back to 1930s level
By Alexander Bueso
Date: Thursday 03 Apr 2025
(Sharecast News) - America moved ahead with trade tariffs that some described as a "worst case scenario".
"Admittedly, a lot is still unclear, and fully quantifying the impact of such a tariff tsunami, which actually brings back tariff levels of the 1930s, is almost impossible," economists at ING said.
Investors were initially cheered the night before, when news broke of a minimum across the board 10.0% tariff.
But that optimism quickly evaporated as it was later announced that the levy on the EU would be 20.0% and at least 54% in the case of China.
The UK actually got off lightly with just a 10.0% tariff placed on its exports and perhaps even gained an advantage over exporters from EU countries who now faced larger levies.
Those tariffs would be composed of a 10.0% baseline tariff that would kick in at midnight on 5 April for all countries, with the remainder - in the case of the EU and China, for example - coming into effect on 9 April.
Gold futures rose to near $3,200/oz. in overnight trading, but as of 0720 GMT were dipping 0.42% to $3,152.90/oz..
Worth noting, copper and bullion were both exempted from the latest US tariffs.
Euro/dollar meanwhile was jumping 1.05% to 1.0949.
S&P 500 mini futures were falling by 170 points to 5,542.25 and those for the Nasdaq-100 by 705.50 points.
Dragging on the latter in particular was a sharp decline in after-hours trading in Apple stock, due to the manufacturer's large footprint in China.
So what now?
Market observers generally believe that the US administration is, at least in part, pursuing a negotiating tactic.
Nonetheless, one big risk for financial markets - likely the biggest - is that countries might now retaliate, setting off a chain of further 'tit for tat' increases.
Roughly a week before, ING had estimated the short-term hit to the bloc's GDP growth at 0.33% and at possibly 0.87% in the long-term.
Also in the shorter-term, which equates to the next two years, inflation was likely to rise, although longer-term tariffs might be disinflationary, ING pointed out, as exports from China were diverted to the EU.
In any case, negotiations might see a reduction of those US tariffs.
Indeed, German finance minister, Jörg Kukies, recently backed a free trade area between the US and the EU, reviving a proposal that had already surfaced - but later been shelved - many years before.
A free trade would of course be quite positive for both economies.
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