Friday preview: US non-farm payrolls, Fed's Powell in focus
By Alexander Bueso
Date: Friday 04 Apr 2025
(Sharecast News) - All eyes at the end of the week will be poised on the latest US non-farm payrolls figures. Or will they?
Consensus is that the Department of Labor will announce only a slight slowdown in the pace of hiring during the month of March, from the 151,000 seen in February to 135,000.
Some economists, such as those at Bank of America, had penciled-in a positive surprise to the tune of a 185,000 print for hiring.
If proven correct, some believed that might help to steady nerves on Wall Street, but given the current uncertainty on the trade front, it remained to be seen if much more than that.
Heading into the number, Michael Hartnett at BofA told clients that lower stocks together with a declining US dollar, oil prices and bond yields was "good news" as it meant that financial conditions were easing.
However, if stocks and oil fell while Treasury yields rose on 'policy credibility' then the opposite would hold true.
"We say SPX 5400...nibble at weak dollar plays (EM) &"rate sensitives" (REITs); SPX 5100-5200...buy "policy pivot" plays (Fed cut/US tax cut/EU & Asia easing plays, e.g. US small cap/retail/homebuilders, EU cyclicals, Asia tech); if recession, wait for SPX 4800-5000 to go all-in on risk once "Trump put" triggered by low 40-45 approval rating & higher unemployment (claims 300k)," the strategist said.
Also scheduled for Friday was a speech, at 1525 GMT, from Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell.
Friday 04 April
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
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QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
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INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Factory Orders (GER) (07:00)
Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)
Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
PMI Construction (09:30)
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