Oil prices slip as IEA cuts demand growth forecast
By Josh White
Date: Tuesday 15 Apr 2025
(Sharecast News) - Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) significantly reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth, citing mounting economic headwinds and escalating trade tensions.
The move followed a similar downgrade by OPEC, amplifying concerns over a weakening outlook for energy consumption.
The IEA said it now expected global oil demand to rise by just 730,000 barrels per day in 2025, down 300,000 daily barrels from its previous forecast.
Growth was projected to slow further to 690,000 barrels per day in 2026, marking some of the weakest increases in recent years.
The revision came despite a strong start to 2025, with demand growing by 1.2 million daily barrels in the first quarter.
Brent crude futures were last down 0.51% on ICE at $64.55 per barrel, while the NYMEX quote for West Texas Intermediate was 0.57% softer at $61.18.
The agency attributed the downgrade to a deteriorating economic backdrop, particularly in advanced economies where industrial activity and freight transport remain sluggish.
Rising trade frictions were further clouding the outlook, as ongoing uncertainty over US tariff policy continues to rattle markets.
President Donald Trump's recent suggestion of modifying auto tariffs provided some support to oil and equities, though overall sentiment remained cautious.
Meanwhile, the supply side of the market was oversaturated.
In March, key OPEC+ producers exceeded their collective output targets by 830,000 barrels per day, with Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait all pumping above quota.
Saudi Arabia slightly raised production to 9.01 million daily barrels, maintaining the largest spare capacity within the group.
Only Nigeria undershot its target, hindered by ongoing operational issues.
Global oil inventories also rose sharply in February, increasing by 21.9 million barrels to 7.65 billion barrels.
Crude and feedstock stocks surged, while refined product inventories declined.
At the same time, refining margins weakened, particularly in the Atlantic Basin, leading the IEA to cut its forecast for 2025 crude throughput by 230,000 barrels per day.
Despite plans by OPEC+ to increase output targets in May, the IEA warned that actual gains could be limited due to persistent overproduction and weak compliance.
Reporting by Josh White for Sharecast.com.
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