Fund managers' recession expectations rise amid tariff war - BofA
By Michele Maatouk
Date: Wednesday 16 Apr 2025
(Sharecast News) - A growing number of fund managers is expecting a recession this year as Trump's tariff war takes its toll.
According to the latest Fund Manager Survey from Bank of America, a net 42% of respondents think that the global economy will see a recession over the next 12 months, while a net 15% of European investors expect this to be the case in Europe.
The survey found that 82% believe the global economy will weaken over the coming year - the highest proportion on record on the back of the Trump administration's tariff increases.
BofA said investors are most gloomy on US growth, which a net 89% expect to slow in the near term, while only 4% expect weaker growth in China, given stimulus hopes.
Recession fears are on the rise, with 49% seeing a hard landing as the most likely scenario for the global economy over the coming year, up from only 11% last month.
Bank of America said investors' cash levels are up - 4.8% globally and 4.5% in Europe - while bond yield projections are down, with a net 5% seeing downside for 10- year yields, the first negative reading this year.
BofA surveyed 195 panellists between 4 and 10 April.
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