Warm weather helps lift UK retail sales
By Abigail Townsend
Date: Friday 25 Apr 2025
(Sharecast News) - UK retail sales rose by more-than-expected in March, official data showed on Friday, fuelled by the sunny weather.
According to the Office for National Statistics, retail sales volumes were estimated to have risen by 0.4%, following a revised 0.7% increase in February. The ONS had initially estimated sales to have risen by 1% in February.
Analysts had been expecting a 0.4% decline in March.
Year-on-year, sales rose 2.6%, also well ahead of forecast, for a 1.8% increase.
The ONS said much of March's rise was driven by clothing and outdoor retailers, who reported that the warmer, sunny weather had boosted fashion and DIY sales in particular.
The UK saw the third-sunniest March on record, according to the Met Office, the ONS noted.
Overall, non-food stores sales volumes rose by 1.7% over the month, while clothing stores sales volumes were 3.1% stronger.
In contrast, food store sales volumes were down 1.3%, following a 2.2% slide in February. The ONS said supermarkets were the biggest fallers.
It noted: "The recent good weather helped to boost sales across a variety of sectors, with garden centres reporting robust trading. The sunshine also helped to improve sales of DIY goods and clothing.
"However, it was another poor month for food sales, particularly within supermarkets."
Overall sales volumes rose by 1.6% in the three months to March end, or by 1.7% on a year-on-year basis.
Erin Brookes, European retail and consumer lead at Alvarez & Marsal, said: "Following a strong start to the year, we've seen another defiant uplift in retail sales this month.
"However, retailers aren't out of the woods yet given the challenging and fast-evolving geopolitical backdrop.
"Consumer confidence remains fragile, with ongoing uncertainty around the impact of US trade tariffs, rising household bills and pressure on retailers' margins."
Matt Swannell, chief economic advisor to the EY Item Club, warned that the figures could have been flattered by seasonal patterns.
He said: "It appears likely that the data is overstating the performance of the retail sector in the first quarter. Nearly all the growth over the last year can be account for by the performance in the last three months, with retail sales only 1.7% above a year earlier.
"Looking past what was likely an overly optimistic start to the year, 2025 appears that it will be another of modest performance in the retail sector. Rising inflation and slowing earnings growth are expected to impeded the speed at which real wages rise.
"While consumer confidence consolidated through last year, recent US tariff announcements look to have hindered sentiment. If this global economic uncertainty continues, consumers could hit pause on some spending decisions."
The latest GfK consumer confidence index, also released on Friday, fell sharply in April, down four points to -23, as concerns about the long-term health of the economy mounted.
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