Week ahead: Bank of England, Federal Reserve in the spotlight
By Alexander Bueso
Date: Friday 02 May 2025
(Sharecast News) - All eyes over the coming week will be on the Bank of England as rate-setters meet to decide on monetary policy.
Analysts at Rabobank were expecting a 25 basis point reduction in Bank Rate to 4.25% on Thursday, followed by a further two cuts over the remainder of the year.
Indeed, a "soft" reading on April CPI could lead them to pencil in another cut in June, they said in a research note emailed to clients.
For his part, City analyst Michael Hewson believed that Bank "might well" cut rates next week.
However, market pricing for multiple rate cuts in the months ahead might not be the done deal that many believe, he said.
Key to Hewson's thinking, core CPI at 3.4% and services inflation at 4.7% both remained elevated and headline CPI might yet peak at 3.7% later in 2025.
To that one could add all of the Office for National Statistics recent problems around its estimates for foreign trade.
But Bank's inflation forecasts might be revised lower, Hewson noted.
He also called attention to hawkish MPC external member Megan Greene's recent comments regarding the possible deflationary effects of US tariffs as Chinese and EU goods are diverted to the UK, which might foreshadow a shift in the MPC's policy bias.
The Monetary Policy Committee's announcement would come a day after that of the US Federal Reserve.
Fed funds futures were discounting 98.7% odds that the target range for the Fed funds rate would be kept at 4.25-4.50%.
But market commentary would likely centre on any comments from the White House and Treasury regarding the need for cuts.
Labour market strength was seen as key for the timing of the first rate cut, which Fed
funds futures were now pricing in for July.
Worth noting, in previous years non-farm payrolls data had been skewed towards strength in the early part of each year due to the complexities of seasonally adjusting the data.
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