Maersk cuts container forecast, maintains financial outlook
By Josh White
Date: Thursday 08 May 2025
(Sharecast News) - AP Moller-Maersk, the world's second-largest container shipping group and a key bellwether for global trade, cut its 2025 container volume growth forecast to a range of -1% to +4% on Thursday, down from its earlier projection of 4%, citing heightened geopolitical tensions and a volatile trade policy environment.
The Danish company warned that escalating US-China trade tariffs, particularly recent moves under US president Donald Trump's policy agenda, had already led to a steep 30% to 40% decline in trans-Pacific shipping volumes in April.
Chief executive Vincent Clerc told CNBC that the scale and speed of tariff hikes were creating a prohibitive trade environment, likely to weigh on demand for the rest of the year.
While the company was yet to cancel any trans-Pacific services, it said it had shifted around 20% of its capacity to alternative routes, particularly to emerging markets in Asia.
Clerc dismissed the idea that global supply chains could be rapidly reshaped through tariffs, calling such efforts "very unrealistic" and likely to require "a decade or two of persistent effort".
He added that while the China-US route represented just 5% of Maersk's total volumes, the broader risk lay in a potential global demand contraction if trade tensions persisted and recession risks materialised, particularly in the United States.
Despite the uncertainty, Maersk maintained its full-year guidance for underlying EBITDA between $6bn and $9bn and underlying EBIT of up to $3bn.
The company posted stronger-than-expected results for the first quarter, with EBITDA rising 70% year-on-year to $2.71bn, well above analyst expectations.
Revenue climbed to $13.3bn, supported by stable volumes, increased freight rates, and a drop in fuel costs.
Separately, Maersk said it expected disruptions in the Red Sea to continue throughout 2025, despite diplomatic efforts to reduce Houthi militant attacks.
While rerouting vessels around Africa had driven up freight rates and helped absorb excess capacity, the company warned that continued instability in the region added to the broader uncertainty clouding global trade.
Maersk, which moves roughly one in five containers shipped globally, said its focus would remain on helping customers navigate the ongoing disruption, though it concedes that visibility beyond the next few quarters remained limited.
At 1542 CEST (1442 BST), shares in AP Moller-Maersk were up 1.45% in Copenhagen at DKK 11,560.
Reporting by Josh White for Sharecast.com.
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