Federal Reserve sees slower pace of rate cuts, awaiting data
By Alexander Bueso
Date: Wednesday 18 Jun 2025
(Sharecast News) - Central bankers in the US trimmed their forecasts for economic growth in 2025 and 2026, while raising those for inflation.
They also continued to project only two interest rate cuts over the course of 2025, followed by a single reduction in each of the subsequent years.
When they last published projections, in May, Federal Reserve board members and regional Fed Bank presidents had anticipated two rate cuts each in 2026 and 2027.
During his post-meeting press conference meanwhile, Fed boss, Jerome Powell, highlighted that more information regarding the impact of tariffs on prices and employment would become available over the summer.
That would help inform what the best course of action might be against the current backdrop of continued solid growth and low joblessness.
Given all of the above, the Federal Open Market Committee kept its target range for the Fed funds rate at 4.25-4.50%.
However, Powell would go on to add that, at present, the degree of conviction around current rate forecasts was not high.
"In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," the FOMC said in its policy statement.
Commenting on the latest policy statement, Ryan Sweet, chief economist at Oxford Economics, said: "Though there is more clarity on the potential composition of the fiscal package, tariff policy uncertainty can shift at moment's notice.
"The Federal Reserve's crystal ball is still clouded and feeds into its bias toward being reactionary, rather than pre-emptive."
Oxford Economics was still anticipating the next rate cut for December.
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