Week ahead: BoE rate decision due; M&S, BP results in focus
By Michele Maatouk
Date: Friday 31 Oct 2025
(Sharecast News) - Next week will be a busy one, with the latest rate announcement due from the Bank of England, as well as a slew of corporate updates from the likes of BP, Associated British Foods, Diageo, BT and Marks & Spencer.
As far as the BoE announcement on Thursday is concerned, Berenberg economist Andrew Wishart expects the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to vote 6-3 in favour of keeping bank rate on hold, thereby ending a sequence of five once-per-quarter 25 basis points cuts.
"The risk that robust nominal demand encourages companies to rebuild their profit margins by raising prices outweighs the downside surprise in wage growth in August and in CPI inflation in September, in our view," he said.
"As current interest rates do not restrain aggregate demand significantly, we expect core inflation to remain sticky until early 2026. Then, waning growth in households' real incomes and a belated tightening in fiscal policy should gradually snuff out excess inflation."
However, TD Securites and Danske Bank both expect a 25 basis point cut.
"The continued disinflation path and recent downside surprises are reasons for Governor Bailey to deliver a tie-breaking vote in favor of bringing Bank Rate to 3.75%. However, we acknowledge the close balance of risks in this decision, which could lead to postponing the cut to December instead," said TD Securities.
Danske Bank said its was a "a non-consensus call" and markets are also pricing only about 30% for a cut.
"We see chances slightly above 50%," it said. "Recent data has confirmed that the cooling of the labour market continues but not at an alarming pace. Job loss accelerated although at a moderate pace of 10k in September and previous job losses were revised down. Consumer demand remains moderate with retail sales at 1.5% y/y in September. Both indicating no rush to cut rates."
Also on Thursday, half-year results from supermarket chain Sainsbury's will be released.
Hargreaves Lansdown equity analyst Aarin Chiekrie said: "Sainsbury's delivered a strong start to the year, with all parts of the business performing well. Solid top-line growth and ongoing efficiency improvements show that the group isn't resting on its laurels, but management expects profits for the current year to remain broadly flat. This outlook reflects an expected £140 million increase in costs linked to changes in employers' National Insurance contributions and the national minimum wage.
"Looking ahead to next week's results, investors don't think price competition has been as intense as the sector had feared at the start of the year. Helped by growing real wages, UK consumers are proving resilient. And if Sainsbury's can keep growing volumes and gaining market share, there could be room for management to upgrade its cautious full-year guidance. For the first half, the consensus points towards retail underlying operating profit of around £500 million."
Another highlight on the corporate front next week will be first-half results from Marks & Spencer on Wednesday.
UBS said that a lack of anticipated upgrades for the year at the first-half results given the material yet one-off nature of the cyber incident alongside broader UK macro concerns means the shares have been down 2% since April, lagging the broader sector.
"With all operations fully restored by second week of August, we expect the market to look beyond the noisy H1 results into Sept/Oct exit rates," the bank said.
"MKS had the best market share momentum in both Food and Fashion in UK before Cyber. We think circa one month of lower availability in Food and circa 3 months of disruption in Clothing Online may have caused a minor dent in customer perception/loyalty but not structural damage."
It said the latest wave of the UBS Evidence Lab Consumer Preferences Survey shows that M&S remains best in class on Quality Perception and Net Promoter Score, alongside Tesco.
"While we don't expect H1 results to set off earnings upgrades, given the low profit before tax/cash flow expectations alongside forecasts of a warm Sept/early October on tough A/W comps last year, we expect it to be an inflection point in the mid-term story as investors start to reflect on FY27e," UBS said.
It added that trading at 10x price-to-earnings on FY27e, Marks offers one of the best risk/rewards in the retail sector.
Monday November 03
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Thursday November 06
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Auto Trader Group , National Grid, Sainsbury (J), Tate & Lyle
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Airtel Africa , BlackRock Smaller Companies Trust, Bytes Technology Group , Card Factory, Me Group International, Octopus AIM VCT 2, Warpaint London
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Chenavari Toro Income Fund Limited NPV, Custodian Property Income Reit, JPMorgan India Growth & Income, Picton Property Income Ltd, Unilever
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Friday November 07
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Alfa Financial Software Holdings , AVI Japan Opportunity Trust , Manchester & London Investment Trust
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JPMorgan Emerging Markets Inv Trust, Pennpetro Energy
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Me Group International
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