Switzerland raises growth outlook after US tariff deal
By Josh White
Date: Monday 15 Dec 2025
(Sharecast News) - Switzerland slightly raised its economic growth outlook for 2026 on Monday, after reaching a preliminary agreement with the United States to reduce import tariffs on Swiss goods, while warning that uncertainty around global trade and the wider economic environment remained elevated.
Government forecasters said they now expected gross domestic product, adjusted for the impact of major sporting events, to grow by 1.1% next year, up from a previous estimate of 0.9%, before accelerating to 1.7% in 2027 as global demand gradually recovered.
The upward revision reflected improved prospects for exporters following the reduction of US tariffs to 15% from a peak of 39%, a move that authorities said strengthened planning certainty for affected sectors.
Growth in 2026 was still expected to slow from an estimated 1.4% expansion in 2025, a year marked by volatile trade and output data, including a third-quarter contraction driven by weakness in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry.
Officials expected economic activity to resume growth in the final quarter of this year.
Foreign trade was forecast to provide a modest boost in 2026, with goods exports now expected to outperform earlier projections, although domestic demand is set to remain the main engine of growth.
Investment activity was likely to pick up gradually as capacity utilisation improves, while low inflation was expected to support real household incomes.
Consumer price inflation is forecast to average 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026, lower than previously expected, before rising to 0.5% in 2027.
Despite steady consumption, subdued momentum is expected to weigh on the labour market.
The unemployment rate was forecast to rise to an annual average of 3.1% in 2026 from 2.8% this year, before easing to 2.9% in 2027 as growth normalised.
The outlook broadly aligned with forecasts from the KOF Institute at ETH Zurich, which also revised its projections slightly higher following the tariff agreement.
Looking further ahead, forecasters said they expected a moderate improvement in global conditions in 2027, supported by a gradual recovery in Europe, particularly Germany, which should underpin Swiss exports.
However, both government experts and independent economists cautioned that risks remain high.
They included the possibility of renewed trade tensions, financial market corrections, rising global debt levels, vulnerabilities in real estate markets and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, any of which could trigger further appreciation of the Swiss franc and weigh on growth.
Reporting by Josh White for Sharecast.com.
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